30-Day weather outlook for december 10, 2018, to january 10, 2019 california avocado commission electricity year 6


Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) off the coast of southern California and off the west coast of Baja Mexico continue warmer than normal for the most part. However, the current pattern continues with a lack of energy. The reason for the lack of energy is the lack of a well-defined temperature anomaly difference across the central and eastern N Pacific. electricity outage compensation El Niño itself is not that robust so the end-result is a sort of lazy pattern, with the focus of rain shifting between N and S halves of California, sensitive to changes in the MJO cycle.

Snow pack across the SierraNV has increased with the moderate to locally heavy snow already observed. There are a few good storms that appear to increase the snowpack a bit in December, but the question is one of consistency…can the above normal snow occurrences continue to occur. We were below normal for the Fall season but with the cooler trough pattern and wetter active storms moving into the region we are expecting a good increase to the snow pack over the next few weeks.

In the Near Term – Dec 15-31…Salinas Valley-San Luis Obispo Co… Above normal rain the first 10 days of December will give way to a more normal rainfall pattern the second half of the month. Fast-moving fronts and troughs will slide through quickly with the storms being a bit anemic at times with less moisture. This will bring lighter rain through the region. A weaker system will bring some rain though most will be light late on the 14th. Another fast-moving system will bring more light rain on the 16th through the 17th. Dry and warmer as a ridge builds from the 18th through the 22nd. The ridge breaks down with a weak system brushing to the north with some rain on the 23rd and 24th with a better rain around the 25th and 26th. A final storm will bring light rain only on the 29th and 30th. A ridge builds again around New Year’s with dry and warmer than normal conditions through the first week of January.

…S Calif Avocado Area, San Luis Obispo Co to San Diego Co… A slightly wetter than normal pattern will continue though rainfall won’t be as impressive as the first half of the month. Some subtropical connection at times but with an inactive MJO moisture amounts will be reduced with more anemic storms expected. gas pump emoji Still some decent rain at times with some upper lows developing bringing rain through southern California. An upper low will develop off a trough with some rain on the 16th and 17th. Better rain will be across northern areas from LA to the NW. Another upper low will bring better rain and wet conditions at times from the 24th through the 26th. gas utility austin A weaker storm will bring some clouds but only light rain on the 29th through the 30th is possible. A ridge builds with dry and warmer conditions expected for New Year’s through the first week of January. Occasional Santa Ana wind events are likely. A moderate Santa Ana from the 12th through the 13th with a stronger Santa Ana from the 17th through the 19th.

Summary – Jan 1-15… In the southern California avocado growing areas, from San Luis Obispo south, it will be turning much drier as the storm track pulls to the north with a building ridge moving into the region through the first half of January. electricity grid map uk Little or no chance of rain is expected. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal due to the high pressure ridge expected over the region. Any precipitation with weak storms sliding north over the ridge is unlikely but will be light at most. Most areas will stay dry. Upper lows are not expected as the ridge and inactive MJO shuts down the moisture connection from the tropics.

Seasonal Outlook / El Niño Update… Jan 15 – March 15… Not much will be in sync for January with an inactive MJO through the middle of January and a relatively weak El Niño will continue through about the 20th of January. The end of January will see some strengthening of the MJO as it starts to increase into the positive or active phase around the first of January. Also, a stronger El Niño is predicted with phasing not quite in sync but becoming more organized from the 20th through the start of February. electricity sources in us Some rainfall with weakening high pressure and a weaker ridge will bring rain into northern Cal, especially by the first of February. The month of February will be much wetter as the MJO peaks in the active phase between the 15th and 25th with a stronger El Niño expected. This will bring more connections from the tropics and subtropics with better rain through all of California. Some upper lows at times will bring rain even into southern California with a wetter than normal pattern across most of the state. Still wet the last week of February with March starting wetter than normal with active and wet storms at times moving through most of California. The MJO wanes from an active to an inactive phase after the 10th of March with less subtropical connections and drier and weaker storms and more near normal precipitation from the 10th through the 20th of March.

For southern California, January will most likely end dry with high pressure dominating the region. The ridge and high pressure pattern will weaken through the middle of February with the MJO and a stronger El Niño bringing a better moisture connection and decent rain at times through southern California from the 15th through the 25th. Still, some decent rains occur late in February through the middle of March are supported by the SSTA’s and overall pattern. Rains decrease and become inconsistent, with weaker troughs after the middle of March as the MJO moves back into an inactive phase.