Are oil markets too tight for trump what is electricity


Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela together have combined to knock huge volumes of supply offline over gasbuddy the past year. At the time of this writing, data on Venezuela’s oil exports were not readily available, but one of the country’s main oil export terminals was reportedly set to resume operations after being forced offline because of a widespread electricity blackout.

However, it’s safe to assume that problems with the oil sector continue. Reuters reported that two storage tanks at the Petro San Felix heavy oil upgrading unit exploded on Wednesday. Estimates vary, but some analysts say that the electricity outage crippled oil exports, dropping them to perhaps 500,000 bpd, down by half from just a few weeks ago.

But the effort noticeably stops short of cutting Iran’s exports to “zero,” as top U.S. officials repeatedly discussed last year. “Zeroing out could prove difficult” one source with knowledge of the deliberations told Reuters. The source added that a Brent price of $65 was “the high end of Trump’s crude price comfort zone.” Brent topped $68 per barrel during midday trading on Thursday.

President Trump hates high gasoline prices more than he hates the Iranian regime. The U.S. backtracked on its bellicose position last year when Brent surged above $80 per barrel just ahead of the implementation of sanctions. It’s doubtful that this time would be any different. Cutting Iran’s oil exports to 1 mb/d is a much more attainable goal than zero.

Having been burned by Trump, the Saudis are unlikely to be as amenable to his demands electricity outage sacramento for more production. “The way that the Saudis were misled by the U.S. president concerning Iran sanctions is something that they can still taste,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup, told Bloomberg. The difference the tone coming out of Riyadh between 2018 and 2019 is stark. Last year, the Saudis tried to soothe the market, repeatedly reassuring everyone on adequate supply. They, along with their partners, abandoned their production cuts to avoid price spikes.

There are very few tools the U.S. has that can satisfy the administration’s competing objectives of isolating Iran and Venezuela while also maintaining low gasoline prices. One tool is the NOPEC legislation, which would open up OPEC members to antitrust action by the U.S. Justice Department. Related: Is This A Precursor For Peak Oil Demand?

OPEC officials m power electricity reportedly made it very clear to U.S. shale drillers in Houston this week that if NOPEC becomes law, it could be very bad for the shale industry. The NOPEC bill could make it difficult for OPEC to engage in coordinated production cuts, which could mean that they return to producing at maximum levels. Not coincidentally, major U.S. oil groups, such as the American Petroleum Institute, are lobbying the U.S. Congress grade 6 electricity experiments not to pass the bill.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spent time in Houston at the IHS CERAWeek Conference, urging shale drillers to do all they can to boost output. He characterized American oil companies as pivotal to U.S. foreign policy. Indeed, in the context of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, what happens West Texas is essential. But again, Pompeo can’t do much to influence what is already occurring in the shale fields.

You contradict yourself from one article to another. A few weeks ago, you gave President Trump credit for reducing oil prices through his continuous tweeting against alleged price manipulation by OPEC. Now you are saying that Oil prices jumped to their highest level since November this week, and the Trump administration deserves a lot of the credit.

A case in point is US sanctions on Iran. You are still talking about a decline electricity experiments in Iran’s oil exports as a result of the sanctions when in fact the sanction have so far failed to cost Iran the loss of even a single barrel of oil. The onus is therefore, on you to name a single country in the world which has stopped buying Iranian crude altogether. The countries which account for 95% of Iranian oil exports, namely, China (35%), India (33%), the EU (20%) and Turkey (7%) not only have upped their purchases but they will continue to purchase Iranian crude with or without waivers. Japan and South Korea accounting for the remaining 5% are still buying Iranian crude albeit with sanction waivers.

Furthermore, the Trump administration has no alternative but to renew the sanction waivers it issued last year to the eight biggest buyers of Iranian crude when they expire in May or issue new ones for no other reason than to use them as a fig leaf to mask the fact that US sanctions have yet to cost Iran the loss of even a single barrel and the fact that the zero exports option is a bridge too far.

Moreover, threatening OPEC with the NOPEC legislation would lead to more tightening of the global oil market and steeply-rising oil prices. This is so because OPEC has enough firepower to retaliate against the US and inflict damage on the US economy where it hurts most, namely high oil prices and a switch from the petrodollar to the petro-yuan shell gas credit card 5 thus the petrodollar undermining the US financial system.