Can india break its oil addiction gas density problems


While India’s oil consumption has seen remarkable growth in the past few years, the recent rise in oil prices may soon force the nation to scale back its reliance on oil importation. In this new oil price environment, continued import growth would put a significant strain on the country’s economy.

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has largely benefitted from the slump in oil prices over the last three years, exploiting the low prices by levying a heavy tax on this key commodity. Before Modi came into office, Brent crude averaged $99.43 a barrel. In his very first year, that figure fell by 42 percent before hitting historic lows the following year when WTI dropped below $27.

As the economy has benefited from high taxation on petroleum and diesel, India has experienced a retail energy price significantly higher than that of its South Asian neighbors – with taxes accounting for half of the total retail cost of fuels in India.

As the price of oil fell, the Indian government increased the excise duty on gasoline nine times over the course of three years. The failure of the government to pass these savings on to the consumer resulted in the alienation of the poorer classes of Indian society.

At present, there is a $10.2 billion difference between the market and retail price of oil in India. This gap has led to India having one of the largest state supported societies in the world, with only Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela and China spending more on state support.

When oil prices were low in India, the government saw earnings soar as it introduced heavy taxation on oil. However, rather than preparing for the inevitable fluctuation in oil prices the government spent the earnings on its bloated state support system.

And now the chickens are coming home to roost. As oil prices have increased, Modi has been forced to plea with the top three Indian oil marketing companies, Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., to sell product at a loss so that the state can keep oil prices stable. This short-term solution is far from sustainable.

As the next election looms, India is facing a plethora of problems – one notable example is the lack of funding in the public transport system. Furthermore, after the Indian government failed to pass on oil price savings to the population, the working class has been largely alienated. The lack of investment and the disproportionate wealth distribution in the country is leading to public skepticism over Modi’s policies.

Lobbying groups are constantly increasing pressure on the Indian government to invest some of its tax earnings from petroleum and diesel into the overcrowded public transport systems in some of India’s larger cities. The metro systems of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru provide the best transport network for locals to avoid both congestion and pollution. Yet, they are gravely underfunded.

One obvious option that Modi will likely consider is to revisit an opportunity from a 2005 proposal. The Prime Minister could invite China to join forces with India in a bid to lower oil prices. With China and India together accounting for 17 percent of world oil consumption, these market giants could establish a bilateral agreement that would give the two nations the necessary clout to reduce the cost of oil from OPEC exporters.

Another, more sustainable, option is to stop relying so heavily on fossil fuels and shift finances toward the development of renewable energies. India is already a significant developer of new technologies, with high hopes of manufacturing a large fleet of electric cars in the coming years. But with failing initiatives, such as the trial of India’s electric car service Ola, there are growing trepidations over Modi’s promise to make all new vehicles electric by 2030.

There were high hopes for expanding India’s renewables from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, with India promising to tackle its dependence on fossil fuels and its negative impact on climate change by installing 175 gigawatt (GW) of renewables power capacity over the next 7 years. However, targets have been repeatedly missed for solar, wind, hydro and bio power since 2016.

A rise in per capita oil consumption (reflected in rising motorization of the Indian economy), a massive programme of road construction and a push towards increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP by 2022 could increase India’s oil consumption by at least a third. According to the IMF, India’s economic growth is projected to hit 7.2% in 2018–19.

In 2017 India consumed 4.63 million barrels a day (mbd) against a production of 0.72 mbd thus creating a deficit of 3.91 mbd which had to be imported. India’s dependence on oil imports in 2017 hit 84% and this is projected to rise to 86% in 2018 and 87% in 2020.

The other option of reducing dependence on fossil fuels by shifting finances towards renewable energy is not a short-term solution. It will take decades before renewable energy could start to reduce the country’s heavy dependence on oil. Even Japan, the United States, China and the European Union (EU) have not mentioned to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels by much. Still, from now until 2022, India is expected to be one of three countries (China and the US are the other two) accounting for two thirds of global renewable energy.

Investment in renewables is relatively cheap compared to investing in expanding the fossil fuel economy. While no one is suggesting that oil use can be abandoned in the short-term, significant portions of the energy supply can be replaced by renewables relatively quickly. The government can come up with innovative schemes such as subsidies for personal and business loans for wind and solar to promote large numbers of businesses, households and land owners to install solar and wind capacity. These can come up in under a year’s time if properly structured. For a country with abundant solar and wind energy, what is needed is the political will to shift away from the conventional energy economy at a relatively rapid pace. A simple example would be for the Indian railways to ramp up it’s pilot program to retrofit coaches with solar panels to offset some of the electricity use. While on a single train, this is a small saving, when scaled up across one of the largest rail networks in the world, this can quickly add up to huge savings and reduce electricity demand from the grid. The nascent renewable energy industry needs a consistent and relatively low cost support from the government to take off and can lead to significant cost savings and environmental benefits.