## Joe thornton and a strange and troubling statistic

San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton has just finished a Hart Trophy worthy season. Gas kinetic energy formula One statistic that has been used quite a bit to justify his Hart candidacy is the number of consecutive wins for San Jose during which Joe Thornton has scored at least one point. A level physics electricity equations Thornton scored at least one point in each of the Sharks last 33 wins.

I did not use this statistic in support of Thornton in our Facing Off discussion over the Hart Trophy because I really was not sure what to make of it. Electricity worksheets for 4th grade So I decided to dig a bit deeper. Gas out game instructions My conclusion is that it isn’t what it seems. Gas density A streak is a combination of elements. Types of electricity Some more obvious than others.

Before I go any further, let me define the term ‘streak’ for this particular context. Electricity merit badge pamphlet pdf It is the number of consecutive games a team has won where one specific player has at least one point in each of the wins. Electricity jeopardy That definition seems simple enough, but it is more nuanced than it might appear.

I’ll forewarn the readers. Electricity static electricity I’ve tried to make it easy to read for those without statistical backgrounds. Gas density units You’ll let me know if I succeeded. Electricity explained The Challenges of Interpreting a Streak

Statistics that come in the form of streaks can be difficult to interpret. Electricity png They often represent an atypical distribution coupled with personal excellence. Static electricity sound effect Perhaps the most famous streak in sports history is Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak in 1941. Hp gas kushaiguda His streak is a delicious combination of superb play, human factors and statistical flukiness. Gas natural Ironically, it is not even clear that DiMaggio was the best hitter in baseball during that streak. Gas what i smoke I’ve put several interesting details about DiMaggio’s streak in my notes following the article.

Embedded in the structure of this statistic is another quirk. La gas prices It carries a strong ‘predictive bias’ towards the outcome of a game. Gas in back By requiring the designated player to score a point in the game, it means his team has a scored at least one goal. Dynamic electricity examples This leads to a corresponding requirement: the other team must score a minimum of two goals to win. Gas 78 industries That relationship is important, as a substantial portion of NHL games have a team score one goal or less. I feel electricity in my body This is a cousin, statistically speaking, of oft-used statements like “when this team scores first, it has an 82 percent chance of winning …”.

Also embedded in the statistic are games that do not count. Gas after eating dairy By definition, not a single loss is part of the streak. Electricity pictures information Thornton’s streak is 33 games long, but it is a subset of the 61 games the Sharks have played since their November 22, 2015 game. Electricity lesson plans for 5th grade That day, the Sharks played their 21 st game of the season. Gas bloating pregnancy They beat Columbus 5-3 while Thornton was held without a point. C gastronomie limonest It marked the last game during the regular season the Sharks would win without a Thornton point.

There were 28 losses in the streak. Gas 99 cents The Sharks were 0-12-1 when Thornton did not score. Gas x strips ingredients There were 15 games where Thornton scored, but the team lost; ten regulation losses and five in either overtime or the shootout. 66 gas station Over the 61 games, the Sharks were 33-22-6. Gas leak Predictive Bias

As mentioned before, the predictive bias (the requirement that the other team score at least two goals to stop a streak, which is derived from the definition of the stat) plays a role. Youtube electricity In 18 of the 33 wins (55%) during the streak, the Sharks opponents scored one goal or less. Gas vs diesel generator In 27 of the 33 wins (82%), they scored two goals or less. Wd gaster battle Given the bias that the Sharks were known to have scored at least one goal, this shows the Sharks had a better chance at winning these games compared to arbitrarily chosen games.

In order to examine this predictive bias, I took an empirical approach, I looked at what other guys did. Gasbuddy touch I took three groups of players and applied similar criteria. Gas 1940 I started with a group of Thornton and his peers. National gas average 2007 These are high scoring players who played all (or very close) to 82 games for teams which had a good season. Electricity videos for students The players in this peer group are Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, Jaime Benn and Joe Thornton.

In the second group, I selected a teammate of each player in the first group. Gas 87 89 93 I selected modest scoring players who played almost every game. Gas prices These players had between 21 and 32 points for the season. Mp electricity bill payment online bhopal They are Justin Braun, Johnny Oduya, Matt Cullen and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Npower electricity bill I looked at the team’s record in games these mid-level players had a point.

The third group consisted of three high scoring players from weaker teams, Blake Wheeler of Winnipeg, Taylor Hall of Edmonton and Erik Karlsson of Ottawa.

I looked at the team’s record when the given player scores a point and when they did not. Gsa 2016 new orleans I added up the team points and divided by the number of games played to get ‘team points per game’. Electricity outage chicago We should see the bias show up in these numbers. Bp gas station It should show higher team points per game when the specified player has a player point in the game. Electricity and magnetism worksheets 8th grade A phrase used to describe statistics with a large inherent bias is “paint the bulls-eye around the arrow”. Electrical supply company near me If you shoot the arrow first and then decide where it lands is the target, you get great results.