Markets live_ investors shrug off rba cut

As has been a trend for some time, the economists at the Aussie banks are much less forthright with their calls for rates to go much lower from here.

Our current view is that a further cut in November is not likely. Electricity outage With interest rates very close to their effective floor we expect that the Bank will be very patient in gathering information around the likely growth and inflation outlook. Electricity pick up lines From our perspective the near term prospects for the real economy appear to be encouraging with lead indicators for the labour market improving and the lift from housing construction and services exports being sustained.

For us the real issue will be the environment in 2017 when the housing cycle will be in reverse; jobs growth may have cooled; global growth, particularly in this region, will have slowed further; and Australia’s interest rates may still be attractive to international investors. Electricity estimated bills It is likely that any change in our current forecast that rates have bottomed will have been motivated by clearer prospects of those developments.We expect that the RBA will be similarly cautious with their assessment.

It is a little early to draw those conclusions given the unusually high degree of uncertainty, particularly around the global environment, but suffice to say that the risks to the rate outlook, particularly in 2017, are firmly to the downside.

Our central case is unchanged and we see rates on hold at this point at 1.5%, albeit with a clear risk of further easing given we think that the RBA’s forecast outlook of persistently low inflation is consistent with an easing bias. Gas and bloating after miscarriage We think that the RBA will now pause to assess the impact of the May and August cuts, with a judgement on the need for further easing depending on the next CPI (due 26 October), as well as the state of the labour market and housing market.

The currency will also be an input into the decision given the RBA again warned that a rising exchange rate could complicate the recovery. Gas unlimited sugar land tx The extent of the pass-through of the cash rate to lending rates also matters as the RBA ultimately sets policy with reference to the rates faced by borrowers. Electricity and magnetism quiz questions On that front, one major lender has already announced that it will pass on only 13bp of today’s cut to its variable rate home loan customers.

Near term, we see a risk that Governor Stevens may push back against expectations for further easing when he speaks in Sydney on 10 August, perhaps by again mentioning that there are limits to monetary policy, particularly when the cash rate is nearing the 1% floor previously cited by Governor-designate Lowe.

In case you are only now emerging from your rock, the RBA has cut interest rates to a historic low, moving its cash rate from 1.75 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

If fully passed on (which is not a given – CBA has only passed on 13 points), the cut will bring the standard variable mortgage rate to 5.15 per cent and the standard discounted rate to 4.35 per cent, slicing $44 off the monthly cost of repaying a $300,000 mortgage.

The board believes that while business conditions are good and non-mining investment is growing in parts of the economy shielded from weak commodity prices, a further cut will boost the labour market and economic growth.

The historically low inflation rate of 1 per cent means rates can be cut without breaching the central bank’s 2 to 3 per cent inflation target.

“Recent data suggest that overall growth is continuing at a moderate pace, despite a very large decline in business investment,” RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in the statement.

“Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend. K electric jobs Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed, but are consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment in the near term.”

Mr Stevens pointed to recent data showing inflation was at a 17-year low and would probably stay low for some time, while low interest rates were making banks more willing to lend money, which was helping the economy.

“The board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting,” Mr Stevens said.

House prices had risen only modestly this year, Mr Stevens said, while a large supply of apartments were scheduled to become available over the next two years and lending for home buyers had slowed.

I f it is going to weaken the Australian dollar to help solve its low inflation problem, the RBA may have to follow today’s 0.25% interest rate cut to a new record low of 1.5% with more cuts to 1.0% sometime next year. E payment electricity bill mp The dollar may yet fall from US$0.75 to US$0.65 next year.

The biggest change is that the RBA has become less concerned about the housing market. Gas arkansas In addition to repeating the previous observations that lending standards have tightened and that more supply is expected, the RBA added that “all this suggests that the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished”. 1940 gas station photos In other words, financial stability concerns won’t prevent the RBA from using lower rates to weaken the dollar and boost inflation.

Of course, with rates already at a record low and household debt high, monetary policy isn’t as powerful as before. Gas jewelry This is especially the case when tighter lending standards are limiting the boost to the housing market. Electricity year 6 But lower rates are the best way to weaken the Australian dollar. Electricity dance moms And a drop in the dollar below US$0.70 would give the RBA a much better chance of hitting its inflation target.

The main rationale for the 25bp easing appears to be confirmation of a weak trend in inflation, with the central bank noting that “Recent data confirm that inflation remains quite low.” Indeed, with annualised run rates of core inflation yet to stabilise and the RBA facing a l arge disinflationary shock that risks being more persistent in nature, it was very likely that the appropriate policy response was going to be more than just a lone 25bp easing.

As was the case in May, the housing market didn’t provide the RBA with any constraint to lowering rates. Shell gas credit card 5 The Board noted that “…the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished.” Moreover, domestic demand is observed at expanding at trend or better. Grade 9 electricity test But as we have observed in past research, above trend growth can still be disinflationary, meaning that activity indicators are not the main driver of policy calibration at present

Our bias is to think that Australia risks a more protracted period of low inflation, and as such, we continue to forecast a further 50bp of easing from the RBA in 1H17. Quadcopter gas motor Photo: Capital Economics

August tends to be a torrid time for markets. Remember last year? Markets went into meltdown last northern summer as Chinese policymakers unexpectedly cut the peg holding the yuan against the US dollar as the dollar marched towards the Fed’s rate cut, while its sharemarkets plunged from a speculative bubble and the Greek debt crisis all led to multi-per cent plunges during a time many professional investors take holidays.

This time around, stock markets including the US are hitting record highs while inflation and growth remain subdued. Electricity 101 video No reason to panic right? Here are five triggers that could cause wobbles this month.

When it meets this week, the monetary policy committee is widely expected to cut interest rates, and it might well give us a fresh blast of printed money. 3 gases Why? Because it feels it needs to counter a possible post-Brexit slowdown in the economy. Electricity generation by source by country On the surface, you might think that would help the stock market. Static electricity in the body effects But you could well be wrong.

Trump’s toxic mix of protectionism, industrial intervention and strategic isolationism could be catastrophic for global growth. Electricity tower vector If he could actually win the White House investors will rightly get very scared.

A wave of tech euphoria is helping propel the markets upwards – just look at the $US35 billion ($46.5 billon) valuation put on the Chinese web-based taxi service Didi for its deal with Uber this week. But history tells us for every major winner there are a dozen big failures. Electricity sound effect mp3 free download If one of the major unicorns falters, that could trigger a wave of panic selling – and in illiquid markets, that always causes a crash.

Despite the latest stress tests, the markets have already assumed Italy’s banks are bust. Electricity office They can take that in their stride. Static electricity human body But a German bank? Deutsche Bank’s share price has been looking horrible all year. Gasco abu dhabi salary The price tells you something nasty is brewing in Germany’s financial system. Any kind of wobble in the banks of what is meant to be Europe’s strongest economy would be a horrible fright for investors.

The Chinese treat the stock market as a casino, except without the bright lights and cocktail waitresses – and they are inveterate gamblers. Electricity production in north korea After declining for six months after the crash, the Chinese market has been on a surge again, getting back to the 3000 level after dropping to 2500. If investors suddenly get out, and the market is shut for a few days, that will create tremors globally.

The recent rally that’s pushed equities to all-time highs is about to hit a speed bump, according to a new note from Goldman Sachs. In fact, the team, led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, expects the S&P 500 and the STOXX Europe 600 to fall roughly 10 per cent over the next three months.

“Given equities remain expensive and earnings growth is poor, in our view equities are now just at the upper end of their ‘fat and flat’ range,” they write. Gas variables pogil answers extension questions The analysts are downgrading stocks to ‘underweight’ for the next three months, while keeping their ‘neutral’ position over the next 12 months and staying ‘overweight’ in cash.

Stock markets have been boosted by favourable positioning that helped buttress investors against the shock of the UK’s Brexit referendum, as well as the search for yield that has buoyed assets, the analysts argue. V gas station But the bank’s proprietary indicator of risk appetite is now turning, indicating tougher times ahead for stocks without a more favourable macro environment.

“Our risk appetite indicator is near neutral levels and its positive momentum has faded, suggesting positioning will give less support and we will need better macro fundamentals or stimulus to keep the risk rally going, but market expectations are already dovish and growth pick-up should take time,” they write.

“We think this reversal in positioning increases the likelihood of an equity pullback given that our fundamental view has not changed: valuations still appear high and we still expect poor earnings growth across regions,” they conclude. 101 gas station “Until the growth situation improves, we are not that constructive on equities, particularly after this type of rally and amid continuing concerns about the sustainability of stimulus led growth in China, global policy uncertainty (and in Europe in particular), dovish central bank expectations, and heightened prospects of unknown shocks (e.g. Electricity quotes by benjamin franklin Turkey recently).”

Goldman Sachs are at their bearish best, predicting US and European equities to fall 10 per cent in the next 3 months. Gas meter reading Photo: Rogier Gruys Back to top

Bruised in 2013, beaten in 2014 and then battered in 2015, iron ore is now battling back. Gas 69 Futures in China surged on Monday above the closing high seen during the height of a speculative boom in April as factory gauges signalled stimulus continues to bolster manufacturing in the top producer.

Spot ore with 62 per cent content at Qingdao was at $US62.27 a tonne on Monday, according to Metal Bulletin. Gaston y la agrupacion santa fe The benchmark has advanced 43 per cent this year, topping $US70 in April, after a three-year losing run that included a 39 per cent loss in 2015 and 47 per cent retreat in 2014 as global supply exceeded demand.

The steel-making ingredient is recovering ground lost since May, after a speculator-led boom that drew global attention fizzled. Gas in dogs stomach Chinese mills have maintained daily steel output at record levels, boosting demand for iron ore even as supply has remained strong. Gas welder job description Sanford C. R gas constant Bernstein & Co. Electricity recruitment 2015 has said the r aw material may be boosted over the next 12 months as expanded credit in China helps to underpin steel production.

“Iron ore has seen an interesting demand change over the past three months,” said Evan Lucas, a markets strategist in Melbourne at IG, adding that demand for steel products is likely to remain high over the coming months. Gas stoichiometry “The PMI data [yesterday] suggests that China is yet to see any moderation in its infrastructure spending.”

The manufacturing purchasing managers index from Caixin Media and Markit Economics jumped to 50.6 in July, from 48.6 in June, while the official PMI slipped slightly to 49.9, from 50, presenting a broadly positive readout of China’s industrial strength. Power in costa rica Numbers below 50 indicate deteriorating conditions. Gas prices under a dollar The country makes half the world’s steel.