Natural gas_ is la niña priced in_ – marketpulsemarketpulse

Natural Gas has been bumping along the bottom of its long-term range for most of 2016. 93 gas near me Indeed in March of this year, Natural Gas hit record lows of around $1.6 MMBTU’s.(that’s 1.6 million British Thermal Units to us humans. Electricity vs gasoline We’ll use BTU’s going forward.) The main reasons were twofold, record high inventories still in storage after the drawdown winter season and the general sell-off in risk that was occurring in markets at the time.

Since then natural gas has climbed steadily throughout the year even as inventories are ramped up again for winter. 3 main gas laws The chart below shows the daily prices. Electricity how it works From a technical perspective, we appear to be marking time before a break higher. K electric company Natural Gas is testing a year-long resistance zone between $2.944 and $2.964 BTU’s (denoted by the red and the green lines), with a break opening a move to the $3.1000 initially and then the $3.350 BTU region.

It is important to note though that this is very substantial resistance before everyone hits the buy button on their computers. Bad gas 6 weeks pregnant Additionally, there are other dynamics at work outside the pure world of charting. C gastronomie traiteur avis For example, the main reason for the 3.5% rally in gas sine the lows of March has been El Nino driven warm weather driving up the use of air conditioning. Electricity water analogy animation Living in Singapore I empathise, I don’t know what we would do without air conditioning here! America’s need to stay cool has required power generators to generate more electricity meaning they have has to buy a lot more gas than expected.

The world hasn’t suddenly fallen in love with natural gas; it is simply that at record lows, it is cheaper to use by power generators than coal or oil. Gas cap light Another thing to note is that natural gas in America is almost entirely and proudly made in America, to paraphrase Donald Trump. Gas key staking tool Thus, from both the supply and demand side of the equation, it is a closed ecosystem so to speak.

Looking at data from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Report we see that regarding gas stored ahead of winter volumes are increasing in anticipation of the growth in demand on the 2nd chart through the winter months.

This brings us to La Niña. 76 gas station jobs La Niña is in effect El Niño’s little sister. Electricity song omd Occurring after the former and bringing the opposite effects weather wise. Gas leak los angeles I won’t go into a lot of detail, needless to say, it tends to make Northern USA winters a lot colder and also increase hurricane activity substantially. Gas prices in texas 2015 (the hurricane season runs from June to November by the way)

Most importantly, going back to points 2 above, it, therefore, can disrupt production via increased cold temperatures in producing areas, hurricanes in others or interfere with the distribution network. Gas natural fenosa It goes without saying that much colder winters in the Northern USA will mean extra more power and heating requirements. M gasol One or any or all of the combinations can put upward pressure on gas prices.

Interestingly 5 of the last 7 hurricanes causing over $USD 1 Billion in damages in the USA came in 2008 and 2011. Gas hydrates are used La Nina years. Gas prices going up to 5 dollars (Source: CNN) However, La Nina does not occur in the same strength each Nino/Nina cycle. Electricity lesson plans year 6 The chances of a strong La Nina were 75% in June and have dropped steadily since. Electricity edison Last night the US Climate Prediction Centre announced they had ceased the La Nina watch for this year as their predicted odds of it occurring had dropped to 40% .

This will no doubt disappoint those bullish on gas and be eyeing a break of the technical level noted above. Thitima electricity sound effect A milder winter with fewer hurricanes most likely places you in a minority, though! Meteorology is an inexact science, though. Electricity jokes riddles And the model still suggests a 40% probability.

Natural Gas has recovered from the record lows in March with a steady 3.5% climb in prices since. Gas vs electric stove cost We are now abutting a strong technical resistance region at 2.944/2.964 BTU’s with a break implying higher levels. Eon gas card top up However, other climatic factors induced by La Nina may or may not play their part. Hp gas online booking hyderabad A drop in La Nina expectations will make this technical level hard to break for now. Was electricity invented during the industrial revolution But climatic complacency has the potential to prove the doubters wrong. Shale gas in spanish Traders should monitor La Nina developments carefully in case the meteorologists have got it wrong!

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