New south wales election minus three weeks – the poll bludger electricity through wood


The campaign for the New South Wales state election will officially kick off today with the issuing of the writs, which under the state’s fixed terms architecture occurs in unusually close proximity to election day itself. Nominations close on Wednesday, with ballot paper draws to follow on Thursday; early electricity physics test voting opens next Monday; and the big day itself is March 23, less than three weeks away. Do take note of the Poll Bludger election guide, to which a link can be found v gas station on the sidebar.

• An encouraging result for the Liberals in East Hills, where the Liberals got over the line by 0.6% in the 2011 landslide, then did very well to retain it by 0.4% in 2015. The poll result points to another squeaker, with Liberal and Labor tied on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 44% (44.2% in 2015), Labor 42% (42.1%), Greens 7% (6.6%) and Christian Democrats 4% (4.9%). The seat will gas unlimited houston be vacated with the retirement of its two-term Liberal member, Glenn Brookes. The sample for the East Hills poll was 508.

• The polls also inquired as to whether “the performance of the Scott Morrison-led federal government” made respondents more or less likely to vote Liberal. The result actually broke favourably a level physics electricity questions and answers for the Liberals in East Hills, at 35% for more likely, 31% for less likely and 28% for no influence, while the respective numbers in Ryde were 30%, 37% and 28%. A statewide YouGov Galaxy poll in late November had more likely at only 20%, less likely at 33%, and no influence at 35%.

• On the question of most important election issue, East Hills respondents came out for migration gas in back shoulder/population on 33%, well ahead of health, urban development and infrastructure projects, while urban development led in Ryde on 27%, with migrant/population way back on 18%. This either says something profound about the political geography of Sydney, with great portent for the federal as well as the state election, or something mundane about the vagaries of polls with error margins of 4%.

• The Nationals are said to be concerned about Upper Hunter (2.2%) and a brace of North Coast seats: Tweed (3.2%), Lismore (0.2% in Nationals-versus-Labor terms) and even Coffs Harbour (14.3%). Coffs Harbour is being vacated with g gas lol the retirement of long-serving member Andrew Fraser, and the polling reportedly points to a 10% swing. Conversely, the Nationals appear optimistic that the Greens will not repeat their coup in 2015 of winning Ballina, or of finishing second gas leak again in Lismore, where the threat comes from Labor.

Except that, using probability theory, it can be calculated (to the best of our abilities) how many seats each party is more than likely to win (please note: I am not using ‘definites’ so please let’s not argue over semantics) as the bookies/punters generally get it right over a large sample. They get it right to the point where the bookie is expected to make a profit (and the punter, a loss). Over the course of hundreds and hundreds of similar contests the result is the expected outcome as per the bookie gas efficient cars under 15000’s odds. You can choose to not believe that if you wish but the data (and the maths) proves otherwise. The bookies don’t offer odds to make the punter rich. They may get a contest here or there ‘wrong’ but over the long term they gas exchange in the lungs occurs due to get it ‘right’.

Thus, from my probability calculations, I believe the LNP and the ALP are both on track to safely win 40 seats each. For the ALP to form government they would then have to win virtually all the close contests and whilst it’s not impossible that they may do that (after all, upsets happen in all contests). Think about how many underdogs win in the footy on any given weekend. The question is, though, how often do you see the underdog win every contest in a given weekend? That is, effectively, your answer 7 cases movie as to the odds the ALP face (subject to updated polling showing a more pronounced swing, at which time, undoubtedly, some of the current odds will move and will change the probability calculation) and why it is difficult to accept them at $1.75 favourites. Again, neither I nor the maths is saying it can types of electricity pdf’t happen, but unless some more qualitative polling comes out then $1.75 seems optimistic for the ALP (FTR: I am hoping for an ALP win so I’m tempering my own optimism).

I’m currently in Wagga this week for work and the ‘vibe’ around town is that the b games zombie coalition are absolutely hated. Speaking to folk in town who work across the southern and western regions of NSW – they are telling me that sentiment is like Wild Fire: they think ‘their’ traditional rural voice – the National party only represents mining and big Agri-businesses and those enterprises are themselves hated by many in the local community as well.

The drought and the endless heatwave have created a mass epiphany amongst rural communities – they now clearly see the Nationals in Monaro, Barwon, Orange etc (and regional Liberals in places like Bega and South Coast) as mere likespittles for 2015 electricity rates the big end of Sydney town and the coalition obsession with Sydney projects like stadiums, motorways and light rail leave rural and regional folk – traditionally conservative folk – white hot with anger. You can’t reduce this to some exercise of mathematical probability npower electricity supplier number, other than to make the obvious point: over that 40 seat watermark that the state swing will deliver Labor – up to another 20 seats, many of them on very safe margins on paper, are in play.