North american petrochemical industry warily eyeing potential overcapacity, a trump pullback on trade _ 2016-12-02 _ natural gas intelligence

The North American petrochemical complex is enjoying a stunning renaissance from flexible natural gas supply and low commodity prices, but uncertainty is looming from a surfeit of manufacturing capacity, strengthening overseas competition and a Trump presidency that has promised to revamp trade, executives said Thursday.

More than 450 people were in Houston on Thursday and Friday for Petrochemical Supply Chain & Export Logistics 2016 to hear insiders and industry analysts offer their views of the global industry. La gasolina in english Times have never been better for U.S. Z gastroenterol and Canadian petrochemical producers as natural gas supplies flourish and prices remain low and stable.

However, executives expressed a bit of uneasiness about the plethora of expansions and greenfield facilities, as overseas competitors begin to muscle in with expansion plans of their own. Gas gangrene Experts also are warily eyeing President-elect Trump’s campaign promises to revamp major trade agreements.

“We are entering into an area and a time, really, when the whole industry is on brink of breaking out into a dimension that hasn’t been realized in years, if not decades,” said conference Chairman David Bazetta of Resources Global Professionals. C gastronomie mariage “It is a very interesting time,” he said in kicking off the conference on Thursday.

Throughout the conference, the audience was polled in real-time about risks to the North American chemicals complex, which has recorded a massive building cycle along the Gulf Coast, where billions are earmarked in the Houston area, particularly Harris and Galveston counties. Z gas el salvador empleos Too much? Or just right? Analysts and industry insiders appeared more optimistic than not.

“There are only two kinds of forecasts — lucky or wrong,” said panelist Ojas Wadivkar, a partner with A.T. Gas finder mn Kearney’s energy and process industries practice. Gas bubble in chest and back “I think there are certain aspects active right now within the macro economics and the entire globe that will increase the need for petrochemicals. Electricity 2014 I’m optimistic on that.” However, “North America is very dependent” on what the incoming Trump administration does in the next few years. 1 unit electricity cost in andhra pradesh The global consulting firm sees three potential scenarios playing out.

The No. Electricity images cartoon 1 scenario, an “optimistic, Global 3.0,” essentially is open trade and borders, with “free movement of product, which would lead to greater growth,” Wadivkar said. Electricity cost calculator The second, a “polarization” scenario, basically would see reduced trade between the western bloc of countries and the eastern bloc. 2015 electricity prices The “most pessimistic” third scenario, “islandization,” creates insular petrochemical economies, with North America essentially trading mostly within its borders.

Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Electricity multiple choice questions grade 9 SVP Stephen Zinger, who oversees chemicals research, is “optimistic and pessimistic” about the volumes of chemicals coming on in North America. Electricity for beginners Product innovation across the industry, illustrated by improved, for example, by environmental stewardship practices and packaging, is cause for optimism, he said.

“This is a very innovative industry,” Zinger said. Gas stoichiometry problems “We have seen that over time…As trends emerge, I’m optimistic about the chemical industry in general…”

However, the industry tends to “build in waves,” he said. Electricity physics khan academy “Where the margins are very good, as they have been in North America in the last four years…we invest in waves, and we overdo it and then markets change…”

The “big piece” of what has up to now driven chemical investment in North America are natural gas and crude oil prices, Zinger said. Gas house eggs In 2014 when oil was $100/bbl-plus, “anything out of natural gas was very competitive versus oil…and we began seeing chemical investments.” Generally, it takes three to five years before a greenfield project ramps up — and there are “four world-scale crackers” set to begin operations in 2017. Electricity projects for grade 7 More facilities move online in 2018 and 2019, and Royal Dutch Shell plc’s cracker in early 2020.

As an example, ExxonMobil Corp. Gas nozzle stuck in car in November said a production unit would be added to its Beaumont polyethylene plant east of Houston, boosting capacity by 65%, or 650,000 metric tons/year. World j gastrointestinal oncol impact factor Underpinned by “advantaged feedstock,” i.e. 3 gases in the atmosphere natural gas, ExxonMobil also is adding ethylene lines at its Baytown, TX, refinery and polyethylene lines at the Mont Belvieu, TX, complex.

“Another eight to 10 company evaluations haven’t made final investment decisions, but we really are looking at changing dynamics in the next few years in the feedstock industry,” Zinger said.

The project announcements are constant, heavily oriented to the Gulf Coast. Electricity for refrigeration heating and air conditioning answer key In September LyondellBasell selected its La Porte, TX manufacturing complex southeast of Houston as the site for a high-density polyethylene plant with annual capacity of 1.1 billion pounds (500,000 metric tons). V gashi kenga e zagrebit Construction is scheduled to begin in early 2017 with start-up planned for 2019.

More polypropylene supply also is being produced in North America, “rescued” by technology, Zinger said. Grade 9 electricity quiz Several operators are building and/or evaluating propane dehydrogenation (PDH) facilities in Canada and along the Gulf Coast. Electricity terms and definitions Among the tentative projects is one by Pembina Pipeline Corp. Electricity jeopardy game and a subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Electricity usage by appliance for a world-scale combined PDH, another for a polypropylene upgrading facility in Alberta, and a potential PDH facility by Sunoco Logistics in Pennsylvania.

Some polypropylene projects have been set aside as they are not as competitive as “ethylene value chains…but we will see some,” Zinger said.

Regardless, billions already have been sanctioned for petrochemical growth in North America. Gas nozzle prank However, “just like shale gas surprised us, there will be more surprises,” from geopolitical upheaval, demand changes, etc., Zinger said. Electricity load shedding “This can’t last forever…I’m optimistic about what this can be. Gas efficient suv 2015 But we have to be realistic” to consider the long-term viability for investments.

“We have to remember that North America is not the only one in the game,” Wadivkar said. Electricity generation by state He pointed to Saudi Aramco, which “wants to be a chemical player in the next five or six years,” initially through an initial public offering for its $2 trillion-valued company to raise funds for a petrochemical business. Electricity 101 presentation “There are huge players…” across the Middle East and in Asia, where China is planning a huge boost to its capacity.

Zinger agreed. Electricity year invented “North America is growing and already exports lots of commodity chemicals, but those volumes will be up significantly when capacity comes up…We estimate 50-70% of new capacity has to be exported to world markets…Latin America is growing and is a target, but that’s a small amount of volumes.” North American exports “have to go to international markets…the Middle East, targeting China. Gas 85 We will be testing those supply chains in a bigger way.”

The North American petrochemical industry “is as good as we’ve ever had,” Sinclair Group SVP Michael W. Electricity and magnetism connect to form Mourot told the audience. Electricity 24 hours But the flexibility of the supply chain “is the weak link to bring on all of this stuff.” Companies may continue to innovate and heed pricing, but they often are failing to consider the most “critical element,” how to get product to the desired market.

The challenge is “how to bring plants online and move product around the world,” Mourot said. Electricity news in nigeria “We have to change our thought processes about how we’ve done that in the past.”

A lot of the new capacity “has got to leave North America…What we’ve found is that a lot of the technology is about 30 years old…I think we lack the most cost effective way to move product out of North America,” depending on the container/shipment.

“We need to look at this from the manufacturing producing location chain to get to the best location” overseas, Mourot said. Gas 1940 hopper “There are elements across technology that we’ve got to take apart and look at. Electricity 4th grade powerpoint Some are regulatory, but the ability to handle chemicals safely…is an element many people miss. Save electricity images It’s not just a logistics component.”

For Nova Chemicals’ Debra van Holst, who directs global logistics for the Canadian-based manufacturer, the “biggest risk” to the industry is a “fundamental slowdown in the global economy.”

Nova has a plant in Joffre, AB, starting operations within a week’s time, the PE1 Expansion that is a third natural gas phase reactor designed to produce 1 billion pounds of linear low density polyethylene a year, a 40% increase at the site. Electricity nyc Annual nameplate capacity is expected to increase to about 3.5 billion pounds. Electricity cost nyc Nova also is involved in several feedstock projects tied to the U.S. Gas x strips walmart Northeast market for Marcellus/Utica gas takeaway.

The chemicals market typically grows at a magnitude of gross domestic product, van Holst told the audience. Electricity symbols and meanings There are big risks of a global market slowdown in the next few years, in part related to the U.S. Electricity rates el paso presidential election. Types of electricity tariff Trump made campaign promises to reconfigure global trade agreements, which may not be a positive for the petrochemicals industry.

If North America’s market were to slow down as trade agreements changed, “what will happen is we’ll start to see operating rates fall a little,” with export volumes slowing as the global economy retreats, she said. Electricity symbols ks3 “Then a big glut of volume would be a big challenge…”

Every project is undertaken with a worst-case scenario, she said. Gas usa “Mitigation strategy is key. Gas jockey We also are working with partners to help understand what are the best supply chains…Really, the key for all of us is to be successful with all of this growth.”

U.S. Electricity news australia cracking capacity newly started up should boost U.S. Gas efficient cars 2016 ethylene supply by 2%, with domestic ethane demand up 3%, according to a note Friday by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Electricity worksheets for grade 1 (TPH). Electricity 80s song LyondellBasell has ramped up Corpus Christi, TX, olefins facility, which includes an 800 million pounds/year expansion. Electricity in indian states Dow Chemical also has restarted operations at its Plaquemine, LA plant, which features a 551 million pound/year expansion.

“Together, these projects will increase U.S. Electricity in human body wiki ethylene capacity by 2%, and they represent the initial batch of a wave of new projects set to raise U.S. Physics c electricity and magnetism study guide ethylene capacity by a significant 20%-plus by the end of 2017,” TPH said. 4 gases in the atmosphere besides oxygen and nitrogen “We believe this incremental ethylene supply will outpace demand next year, leading to a slight drop (about 3 ppt) in steam cracker utilization rates by 4Q2017.” The LyondellBasell and Dow projects “also make up 34,000 b/d of new ethane demand, which represents a 3% increase compared to 3Q2016 U.S. Gas works park seattle ethane demand of 1,108,000 b/d.”

Between new petrochemical facilities and new exports, TPH analysts pegged U.S. G gas lol ethane demand rising 34% by the end of 2017, “which is one of the reasons our ethane forecast is 30 cents/gallon, about 5 cents above futures. Gas lighting urban dictionary This is a big jump compared to year-to-date ethane prices of 19 cents/gallon. B games zombie With expected falling utilization and rising feedstock costs, we continue to expect small declines in U.S. Gas bijoux soho steam cracker profitability in 2017.”