Podcast_ marin katusa part ii_ where are oil and gas prices headed_ _ financial post

Marin Katusa has been an investment strategist and writer in the resource sector for the last decade and a half. Electricity demand He is also the author of The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp. Gas vs electric water heater cost per year In part II of our interview, he joins us today to talk about how the shale oil and gas revolution is really just getting underway.

Listen to Part II of the podcast interview with Marin Katusa: http://wpmedia.business.financialpost.com/2016/07/marin-katusa-160722-podcast2.mp3

James West: Marin, when we last spoke, we were talking about the shale revolution and, your main contention that it was more or less just getting under way. Tgask I’d like to ask you about the excessive supplies of oil that are now facing the global energy complex, and if the shale oil and gas revolution is truly just beginning, then doesn’t that imply that the continuing diminishing energy intensity-per-capita usage across developed nations, in combination with growing supplies, and the lower cost associated with the advance sciences associated with shale gas exploitation — isn’t that all going to have a diminishing impact on prices?

Marin Katusa: Great question, James. T gas terengganu So let’s first talk about the demand aspect of it. Electricity 220v You’re correct, and I believe that with the energy efficiency, with the new technologies coming in, for example, like electric vehicles, about 40 per cent of every barrel of oil is used to produce gasoline for vehicles. Gas quality by brand So you’re seeing these vehicles becoming more efficient, they can go longer on a gallon, but also, you’re going to see an increase in the electric vehicles. Electricity questions for class 10 So I agree with you that the growth that the industry expected five years ago is going to slow down.

But you look at China: they’re the No. Electricity generation efficiency 1 consumer now, gasoline on imports. O gascon So there will be, right now we consume about 95 million barrels of oil a day; there’s going to be that strong demand. Gas and supply acworth ga It ain’t going to go to 80, we’re consistent on demand.

Now let’s talk about the supply. Electricity usage in the us You really have to break up the oil supply into two categories, the way I look at it: if you look at OPEC, what I call the Dirty Dozen, plus Russia – now, Russia’s not part of OPEC, but let’s just talk about OPEC and Russia, those two groups produce about 45 per cent of the global oil production.

Now, let’s take everyone else: that’s 55 per cent. Electricity and magnetism worksheets 5th grade Where I think you’ll see the innovation and the growth will be in the 55 per cent, the non-OPEC, the non-Russia. C gastritis You look at North America; because it’s funded by the public markets, investors like you and I, James.

When you go to OPEC, when you go to Russia, it’s more government-funded, it’s more bureaucratic, it’s more central planning. Gas south They will not have the growth curve, they will not have the technology curve. Electric zap sound effect free Look at the Soviets, what went down at the fall of the Soviet Union; they went from nine million barrels a day to just over four. Gas turbine Well, the growth that happened in Russia, people forget that was North American technology that came into Russia, really revitalized their fields, and then the Russians kicked them out.

You look at the rest of OPEC: very similar pattern. Hp gas kushaiguda phone number So where the growth production and technology will be, in North America. Electricity song lyrics And as an investor, James, you want to invest where the rule of law protects you. Electricity was invented When I went to Iraq and Kuwait, you and I as investors cannot do direct investments in Kuwait or Iraq when it comes to oil production. Electricity nightcore You can invest through the services sector, but why would you bother? The returns aren’t there.

So I’m very bullish on, where you look at North America, Eagleford, Bakken, the Montenay in Canada, these are great fields that are only going to get lower-cost production, but you see, what used to be – I remember debating my friend and partner Rick Rule two years ago, and I said, not only will shale oil become economic at $50, it’s going to become economic at $40 and then $35 and it’s going to continue. Electricity kwh cost uk That’s the curve we’re at.

So I agree with you. Electricity transmission vs distribution Do we need $100 oil to bring shale production on today? Well, there’s some shales that just aren’t economic even if it was $150 oil. Orlando electricity providers But there’s some great, economic production at $50 oil. Electricity jewels $50 oil is very economic today for certain companies and certain shales.

Marin Katusa: Canadian oilsands is a very different game. Electricity vs gas heating costs Bad news for any new growth; when you look at the Canadian oilsands, it’s more like a mining operation for the open pits. Gas city indiana car show The sag-d, that’s a bit different; the growth hasn’t happened there.

You look at, unfortunately for the Canadian oilsands, it’s a very tough go, because not only do they have to put a huge, huge amount of capital upfront – we’re talking billions and billions of dollars upfront – but finding people, like Fort Mac is a very, very, very small town. Electricity billy elliot karaoke Bringing people, qualified labour to come and drive the trucks and come and work in these mines, it is not an easy task, so they have such a high inflation rate and cost issues, that I’ve avoided the Canadian oilsands because I believe there’s better areas to make money in the oilpatch. Gas hydrates wiki So I’m not very bullish on the oilsands.

Marin Katusa: Yes. Gas meter car So any production that was put online prior to 2008, you’re looking at about $40 to $45 a barrel to break even. K electric company duplicate bill Remember, the biggest advantage that the Canadian oilsands has, James, is a weak Canadian dollar. Gas jeans usa So that helps out significantly. Harry mileaf electricity 1 7 pdf When you’re looking at $0.75 USD to CDN, you’re going to have a 25 per cent advantage there versus a U.S. E sampark electricity bill payment producer. Electricity grid uk So you have that going.

Canadian oilsands, once it’s up and running and the CapEx is built. Gas stoichiometry calculator But any new production that you want to put online today needs about $75 to $80 a barrel.

Marin Katusa: Definitely, but not only there. Electricity invented in homes You see, the Western Canadian sedimentary basin, the bankers, the way they’ve financed it is a little bit misleading, and in Canada, they do it on their reserves, and it is based off of a three-year rolling price of the commodity. Electricity production in the us That’s done by a third party engineering firm. Electricity news philippines But is it really a third party independent, where James, if you wanted to come for a loan, and you have four different independent firms, you’re probably going to hire the one that’s going to be most amenable or kind to valuing your business.

So I’ve always questioned and looked at these reserve reports as very, you got to look at it with major skepticism. Hp gas online registration But because they use a three-year commodity rolling price, we will see, at the end of this year, the reality hit, because we’ve now had two years of lower oil and lower natural gas prices in Canada and in the U.S.. Gas and water llc So now the engineers are going to have to revalue their cutoff.

Now, a reserve is defined by the economic amount of production of your resource; a resource is just hey, this is how much gold or copper or oil we have. Electricity quiz for grade 5 Reserves are, this is how much of the commodity we have that’s economic at today’s production. Hp electricity bill payment online So you’re going to see a lot of things fall apart here moving forward.

James West: Okay. Electricity generation in usa So that brings us to, you published a book in 2014 called The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America’s Grasp. Electricity word search j farkas answers Can you give us an overview of the premise of that book and the thesis behind it?

Marin Katusa: For sure. Gas efficient cars 2012 I never planned to write a book, but after travelling to over 100 countries, and when I went to the oilfields in Kuwait and Middle East and Iraq and all these areas, people forget that the American innovation and technology, combined with the British, but really it took off after World War II with the Americans and the Seven Sisters, and essentially you had resource nationalism. Youtube gas station karaoke Even Mexico’s oilfields, they just started opening up here recently, but it was American companies that really proved up many, many of these areas around the world. Gasco abu dhabi careers Venezuela: the Americans did it. Electricity voltage in canada You look at everywhere, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, across the board, it was the Western world’s money, technology and risk that proved up these areas. Gas 78 facebook And then there’s resource nationalism.

And then you look at the emerging markets. Gas house What’s China, Russia, what are these emerging markets with major populations going to do? So I broke down the history, the past; I talked about the present situation, you know, you’ve got the geopolitical efforts of the American agenda versus the Russian agenda, we saw that happen in real time between Ukraine, between the West and the East. Power per kwh You look at what’s going on in China, in the South China Sea, that’s a political brewing, and then the Middle East. V gashi halil bytyqi You look at Syria, how Putin stood and supported Assad when the Americans went against it.

So I talk about there’s the present situation, and now what’s going to happen in the future. Gas stoichiometry lab And I break down which commodities I’m very bullish about, which ones I’m bearish about, and it’s really a past, present and future breakdown of the commodity markets.

James West: All right, Marin. Gas key staking Let’s leave it there for now. Gas definition physics We will come back to you in a couple of quarter’s time and see how you are making out. Gas monkey monster truck hellcat Thank you so much for your time today.

James West is an investor and the author of the Midas Letter, an investing research report focused on Canadian markets. Electricity hero names The views expressed on this podcast — edited for clarity, brevity and compliance with securities laws — are his own and are presented for general informational purposes only. Chapter 7 electricity They should not be construed as advice to invest in any securities mentioned.

James West and/or associated funds do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. E85 gasoline For the full Midas Letter disclosure policy, click here. Electricity symbols Postmedia and Midas Letter have a revenue sharing arrangement.