Realism of emberverse alternate history discussion electricity transmission costs

#########

1. CORA etc. I fully agree with how Stirling has mapped the gas 89 various Ranger states out, including the fact that being more sparsely populated and less fertile than Iowa the creation of a centralised unitary state is unlikely, leading instead to a loose coalition of Ranchers. The fact that you have the contrast between the Rovers for whom everything went wrong, Pendelton in the middle and CORA as the ideal is especially good. 10/10

As a high fertile reasonably populated area with a massive agricultural surplus that is not dependent on irrigation if any where in the US can come though well and maintain a high degree of sophistication its Iowa. Though I think Iowa might of survived as some form of democracy, maybe with a franchise qualification (only farmers?) considering how mild the situation was, still the fact that there are political parties indicates that some form of democracy survives. 10/10

The idea that a former military figure in a good area might keep a civilisation going and place a strong emphasis on restoring the US is easily believable. That it might be a centralised authoritarian regime with Roman air’s is similarly believable consider the cultural links between the Republic and Rome and Rome’s success attracting copying. The inevitable conflict between the first generation who really believe in restoring the pre-change US and only being authoritarian for the duration of the emergency and the next generation is well played out. 8/10

While its quite gas engine tom high up on the bell curve the idea that a small university town would come through well, having a much higher percentage of people with useful knowledge and an emphasis on preserving it is believable, though I think everything turned out a bit too perfect, still I suppose if everything goes wrong twenty times it has to go right once. 7/10

The idea that a group would form around a competent figure with useful skills like Mike Havel and settle, creating a society with an emphasis on maintaining a military surplus (i.e. A-listers) is plausible, though it seems to have all turned out a bit too perfectly. Equally the way that it has combined an effective form of government in the situation (semi-neofeudalism) without putting too many backs up makes it more reasonable than the Protectorate, however the neo-Viking paganism loses it a point. 6/10

On one hand full scale recreation of 12th century France is a unlikely, but as the books point out Norman Arminger failed. The idea that neo-feudal societies could form in fertile areas that are hard hit enough to see mass-die off gas station near me open but not full scale death zones I can buy. That an alliance between recreationists and ganger-bangers will hold is the unlikely bit, especially imposing in your face feudalism on 21st century Americans; even after the change you need to dress it up in less obviously clothing, like CORA or Iowa for example. Still one strong man with useful knowledge could persuade a large number to go along for the sake of survival initially and 20 years down the its set hard. The problem is the scale. 4/10

Where do I begin, small group of hippies making it through okay, people copying societies which worked in similar situations in the past and forming clans maybe. The two combining, at a stretch. A bunch of hippies expanding from 50 people on a hobby farm to 80,000 people spread over a large chunk of Oregon with thousands of followers outside the territory in 20 years, insane. 2/10.

What people forget is the sheer complexity of modern agriculture. Yes some of the gas bijoux soho irrigation channels would keep on working, but California is a massive agricultural deficit region. More importantly California produces lots of cash crops like oranges and wine not easy to harvest (with sufficient labour) potatoes. In fact most of time you are eating non-Californian produce. This is due to the nature of harvest time, the cost of storing vast amounts and food and modern just-in-time delivery. So in autumn America and the Northern hemisphere harvests the majority of its crops, much of which is exported. Then in the Spring when the Southern Hemisphere harvests you eat Australian grain. The change occurs in March when grain stocks have been run down, what food is ripe can’t be harvested because all modern agricultural equipment has died and with modern transport networks destroyed you can’t import Australian grain.

Even if it happened in August it would be all but impossible to get people out of the cities into rural areas to bring in the harvest due to the complete breakdown of modern communications. While I think he overestimates the amount of damage areas would suffer. The East Coast and California wouldn’t be left to a couple of thousand cannibals Stirling is right to say that the vast majority would die and that law and order would break down.

I consider the formation of the huge state of CUT to be the most impossible, mainly because it is located in the state of MT. First, the state has a tiny population even before the Change, so where are these masses of warriors coming gas buddy from? Second, MT is a horrible place for a medieval economy… the climate is generally awful for crops, cattle have to be spread pretty wide to get enough to graze, and the winters are godawful harsh. In the east, they might be able to get coal and get through the winters, but in the west, they are rapidly going to burn up every tree that is close enough to harvest. In fact, the ‘great die off’ in MT isn’t likely to be from starvation (plenty of cows and sheep), it’s likely to be from freezing to death in the winter. There isn’t all that much in the way of mineral resources in the state, most of the copper and gold having been mined out already electricity bill nye. I could see the formation of some smaller communities along the bigger rivers (irrigation and power), with some short season crops being raised (barley, potatoes), and lots of grazing animals kept around. But a giant CUT sized military community? nah…

I consider the formation of the huge state of CUT to be the most impossible, mainly because it is located in the state of MT. First, the state has a tiny population even before the Change, so where are these masses of warriors coming from? Second, MT is a horrible place for a medieval economy… the climate is generally awful for crops, cattle have to be spread pretty wide to get enough to graze, and the winters are godawful harsh. In the east, they might be able to get coal and get through the winters, but in the west, they are rapidly going to burn up every tree that is close enough to harvest. In fact, the ‘great die off’ in MT isn’t likely to be from starvation (plenty of cows and sheep), it’s likely to be from freezing to death in the winter. There isn’t all that much in the way of mineral resources in the state, most of the copper and gold having been mined out already. I could see the formation of some smaller communities along the bigger rivers (irrigation and power), with some short season crops being raised (barley, potatoes), and lots of grazing animals kept around. But gas prices in michigan a giant CUT sized military community? nah…