Serious question as a newsom supporter, should i vote for john cox grade 9 electricity review


Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is going to finish first in the June 5 primary for Governor. There seems to be little doubt of that. The only issue is going to be who finishes second: Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa or Republican John Cox, who is Trump’s man in the fight. Seeing how popular Trump is in the state of California, he’s going to be a sacrificial lamb to Newsom if he finishes second. Most probably. Maybe not 100% chance, but close.

Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, is a Democrat and a mildly progressive one, but not nearly as progressive as Newsom. He’s also sold his campaign to three billionaires, Michael Bloomberg, Reed Hasting and Eli Broad, who are in it to push charter schools. If the vote came down to Villaraigosa and Cox, I’d have no problem voting for Villaraigosa on the assumption that the state legislature would stymie his charter school initiatives. On everything else, Villaraigosa would probably not differ that much from Newsom, except maybe in temperament and intensity.

The difference is, if Villaraigosa got in a one-on-one race with Newsom in the fall, he could actually win. It would be like Kevin Johnson in Sacramento writ large—a moderate pro-charter school Democrat collects all the Republican votes and then siphons off just enough Democrats to win. Newsom would still be the favorite, but not overwhelmingly so like he would against Cox.

Newsom knows this. He’s been attacking John Cox in TV commercials in ways that are specifically designed to address Republican voters reservations about Cox. He’s calling him too conservative, opposing sanctuary cities and a supporter of Donald Trump. Newsom knows these attacks are designed to get GOP voters to switch their votes from the arch-conservative Travis Allen to Cox, thus coalescing the small GOP base around Cox to put him into second place.

The downside of this is that if Cox makes the final two general election, he, along with his pet issue on the gas tax, give a reason for GOP voters to show up in November. The best thing for California and America would be a demoralized California GOP, which could in turn give the Democrats 6 or 7 House seats and make Nancy Pelosi Speaker.

On top of that, with Cox out of the race, he’s not going to be on TV all fall pushing his personal pet issue, the Gas Tax repeal. California may be less allergic to taxes than other states, but no one likes paying more at the pump. And again, such an issue could prevent GOP voters from staying home in November.

In the end, I’m about 99% sure I’m going to vote for Newsom. But it’s these kinds of shenanigans that make the “top two” primary so stupid. This isn’t a bug of the system, either. It’s a feature. Schwarzenegger wanted Republican voters in safe Democratic districts to rally around the more conservative Democrat, and that’s why the rule passed. In reality, Democrats still vote for Democrats and Republicans still vote for Republicans, but we’re getting two many situations where eight Democrats split the primary vote and two Republicans sneak into the general election despite representing only about 40% of the district. I’m sure Schwarzenegger is happy about this and he would hope that both Republicans would run to the middle to get Democratic votes necessary to win. (As he did) Instead, both GOP candidates realize that’s a recipe to have one term in office, as neither Democrats nor Republicans would support them in the next election.

As I said, I’m probably 99% likely to just vote for Newsom at this point. But that I have to go through all these permutations to figure out the best way for my preferred candidate to be the next governor just shows how stupid this “Top-two jungle primary” system really is.