Stock market today november 12th – 16th, 2018 stockaholics types of electricity tariff


The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 201.92 points to 25,989.30 as losses in Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs offset gains from Disney. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9 percent to 2,781.01, led lower by consumer discretionary shares and tech. The Nasdaq Compositelagged, dropping 1.7 percent to 7,406.90 as shares of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet all traded lower.

Disappointing data out of China also dampened sentiment on Wall Street. The country’s top auto industry association said sales in China fell 11.7 percent last month, marking the fourth straight monthly decline. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.4 percent overnight. Caterpillar shares dropped 3.4 percent in the U.S. while General Motors’ stock fell 2.4 percent.

Comments from White House trade advisor Peter Navarro soured optimism about a possible deal between the two countries. "If there is a deal — if and when there is a deal, it will be on President Donald J. Trump’s terms. Not Wall Street’s terms," he said. electricity sources usa Navarro’s comments come ahead of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 summit.

These sharp losses have rekindled worries about a possible slowdown in the global economy, which come as the Federal Reserve looks to further tighten monetary policy. The Fed on Thursday decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as was expected, but comments by the U.S. central bank suggested it was on course to continue hiking rates.

The U.S. midterm elections ended with the Democrats taking control of the House and the GOP maintaining a majority in the Senate. This result was widely expected by pollsters and election experts. gas turbine Under this government make-up, meaning a split Congress and a Republican president, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12 percent gain since 1928, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

More importantly, beginning in 2019, the quarterly rate of change in earnings will drop markedly and head back towards the expected rate of real economic growth. (Note: these estimates are as of 11/1/18 from S&P and are still too high relative to expected future growth. Expect estimates to continue to decline which allow for continued high levels of estimate “beat” rates.)

So, really, despite all of the excitement over the outcome of the mid-terms, such is really unlikely to mean much going forward. The bigger issue to focus on will be the ongoing impact of rising interest rates on major drivers of debt-driven consumption such as housing and auto sales. Combine that with a late stage economic cycle colliding with a Central Bank bent on removing accommodation and you have a potentially toxic brew for a much weaker outcome than currently expected.

Of course, the one thing that a “gridlocked” Congress can likely agree on is “more spending.” While there will likely not be any funding approved for “boarder walls,” immigration reform, or further defense spending, they can probably reach an agreement for an “infrastructure spending” bill. The problem, as President Obama found out when he tried it, is that:

“Country A spends $4 Trillion with receipts of $3 Trillion. This leaves Country A with a $1 Trillion deficit. In order to make up the difference between the spending and the income, the Treasury must issue $1 Trillion in new debt. That new debt is used to cover the excess expenditures, but generates no income leaving a future hole that must be filled.

The problem, as noted by Dr. Brock, is that government spending has shifted away from productive investments, like the Hoover Dam, that create jobs (infrastructure and development) to primarily social welfare, defense and debt service which has a negative rate of return. According to the Center On Budget & Policy Priorities, nearly 75% of every tax dollar goes to non-productive spending.

DJIA has been up 10 of the last 14 years on Monday of expiration week and Friday is up 12 of the last 16 years with an average gain of 0.55%. gas bloating diarrhea For you fact-checkers our there it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same point change and percent change in 2014 and 2015. I triple checked, its right. If you go out 2 more decimal places in the percentage calculation it’s different, but that is getting way too wonky for a Friday afternoon post.

S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have not been as bullish as DJIA around or on November option expiration. S&P 500 has advanced only 16 times during options expiration week while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have climbed only 15 and 14 times respectively over the past 24 years. All four indices have posted average losses on Monday and aside from DJIA and S&P 500 have been essentially mixed on options expiration day. Friday’s solid average gains across the board are largely due to a sizable gain in 2008. Any weakness next week could be a good entry point for new longs ahead of the usually bullish Thanksgiving holiday. Note solid strength during the week after options expiration since 2002. The worst blemish on the recent history is 2011.

As of the market’s close yesterday, DJIA was up 2.07% thus far in November. S&P 500 was higher by 1.61% and NASDAQ was higher by 0.96%. Small-caps, measured by the Russell 2000 were performing the best, up 2.96% over the first four trading days in November. Current gains are consistent with the historical trend of early November strength. However, historically early strength has faded after the fourth trading day. Election results coming in line with expectations has extended strength this year. Mid-month, from around the fifth trading day until the fourteenth trading day, has been choppy. From there until the penultimate trading day of November the market has historically booked solid gains. Recently the last trading day has been prone to more weakness than strength.

Later today the first of the day’s election results will begin to trickle in and if history is any guide, the results will likely have a minor impact on the market. electricity and circuits This is the “ Sweet Spot” of the four-year cycle for the market. In the following chart the 30 trading days before and 60 days trading days after the last 17 midterm year elections appear (NASDAQ since 1974). Prior to 1969 the market was closed on Election Day so the close on the day before was used. By 60 trading days after the election (approximately three months), DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were all higher on average from 6.8% to nearly 10%.

Digging deeper into the data, the following table shows S&P 500 performance 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the midterm elections since 1950. 1- and 3-months after the election S&P 500 was higher 82.4% and 94.1% of the time respectively. By 6-months and 1-year after, S&P 500 was always higher, although gains did slow after 6-months. The years the President’s party lost control of the House of Representatives are shaded in grey.

We monitor all sorts of different breadth indicators in order to get a feel for how market internals compare to moves in the major market averages, and one of the most widely followed of these indicators is the S&P 500’s cumulative A/D line. The cumulative A/D line is simply a running total of the daily net number of stocks in the S&P 500 rising or falling.

The chart below shows the cumulative A/D line for the S&P 500 (red line) and the index’s price over the last 12 months. At first glance, it looks like the cumulative A/D line has generally been tracking the price of the index during this period, but if you look closely, there are some key periods that are telling. Looking back at the late January through early Spring period, you can see that while equities sold off sharply in the initial leg lower, breadth held up relatively well. In fact, while the first bounce in February stalled out well short of the prior highs, the cumulative A/D line came close to making a new high. More importantly, though, when the S&P 500 tested the February lows, the cumulative A/D line didn’t come close to making a new low, and then the rally that followed, it actually made a new high well before the market. This was a key positive divergence at the time and suggested that the S&P 500 would eventually retake its prior highs.

In the current period leading up to the S&P 500’s peak right up until now, we haven’t seen much in the way of divergences in either direction. Both the price and cumulative A/D line of the S&P 500 made new highs on the same day in September, sold off hard, and then in the ensuing rally retraced right around 60% of the high to low decline. 10 gases Unfortunately, at this point breadth isn’t saying much good or bad. Looking forward, though, the key things to watch will be how breadth reacts if Friday’s decline is the beginning of a new leg lower, or what happens if the S&P 500 rebounds and makes a run for new highs.