## Stupid off day math probabilistic division standings – talking chop electricity physics definition

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One of my favorite meta baseball-y things are playoff odds q gastrobar dias ferreira. Some people may not care, but I like watching them zigzag and evolve over time. While this is more fun during the season, the offseason can also suffice. Unfortunately, Fangraphs’ playoff odds module ( https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds) is not yet updated for 2019, even though it reads “2019” everywhere while displaying 2018 results, so that’s led me down this stupid path to this stupid exercise.

Yesterday, Anthony did a tremendous job summarizing a whole bunch of things. That article (go read it if you haven’t) included some great tables about current projected records, as well as playoff odds via Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS (which is not gas x while pregnant quite the same as the overall Fangraphs playoff odds, which electricity voltage used in usa blend Steamer and ZiPS together). That got me to thinking, all of that is well and good, but given what we know, how might the division actually shake out?

That’s where the stupid math comes in. Here’s what I did. I started with each team’s projected wins, from the Fangraphs projected standings page, which is updated for 2019 ( https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx z gas station?position=Standings). These standings currently have the Nationals at 90 wins, the Phillies second at 86, the Braves and Mets virtually tied at 84, and the Marlins bringing up not just the division rear, but the entirety of MLB, with 62 victories. (Also, be advised that these numbers have been observed to jump around with little warning, so these are the numbers as of 2:33 pm ET on March 7, 2019.)

(Minor pedantic/irrelevant note — I’m a fan of considering wins in the context of WAR-wins n gas price, i.e., team projected WAR plus about 47.6. By this record, the Fangraphs Depth Charts projections have the Braves at around 85.5 wins, above the 84-win projection. The reality, though, is that schedule matters to some extent, and that’s likely what’s driving the 84-win projection, as well as the fact that I think Fangraphs uses BaseRuns rather than straight-up WAR totals for their projected standings.)

But, those win totals are m gasol just point estimates. And what do we say to the god of point estimates? “Show us distributions, dingus!” To get those distributions, I simply applied the complete array of variability associated with “projected vs. actual results” for 2005 through 2018 (hat tip to Jeff Sullivan for most of these data, which he graciously shared with me years ago; I’ve been updating it since). Once that was done, it was an easy task to just array the five NL East electricity sound effect teams in terms of wins, and see who came out ahead, and how often.

You can see from the above that the Nationals come out ahead most often, at a rate almost twice as frequent as the Phillies (and more than twice as frequent as the Braves and Mets). Yet, their division victory likelihood is still under 50 percent. The Phillies are marginally more likely to be the gas natural inc divisional runner-ups, while the Braves and Mets are equally likely to finish in some combination of third and fourth. And the Marlins, well, they also exist, I guess.

• Sometimes wins come at the expense gas 1981 of other teams in your division. This exercise ignores this, and just modifies wins in general. In trial number 6472, the Phillies win the division with 75 wins. The division finishes with only 335 wins, total. That’s probably not going to happen; it’d mean the various NL East teams lost huge to every other division. The flip side is trial number 1660, where the Mets take first place with 104 wins, but the three non-Marlins teams finish with 99, 98, and 96 wins between them. Also probably not going to happen, unless gas 10 ethanol the NL East pounds every other opponent mercilessly.

• The distributions around the central estimate for each team aren’t equal, but that equality assumption is being made here. Different teams have gas pain in chest different risk factors and outcome distributions. This ignores all that. I’m not sure how rigorously the Fangraphs playoff odds apply this concept, but it’s probably more rigorously than here, so wait for those for a more judicious treatment of this aspect of forecasting.