The double bind faced by greece – global x msci greece etf (nysearca_grek) _ seeking alpha

Greek debt crisis is a vicious circle. Year 6 electricity unit The Troika (EU, ECB and IMF) along with the Greek government do not seem to be able to make the Greek debt crisis a chapter in an economic history book any time soon as the involved parties fail to agree on a plan which will lead the country out of the 6-year crisis.

Lower Debt: It becomes more and more clear that there will not be a Greek debt haircut this (or next) year and this will be decided after the end of the Greek rescue plan in the end of 2018, as German and French elections are due in 2017 and a Greek debt haircut would weigh on results.

Higher GDP growth: We do not see any way the Greek economy could turn to high growth rates, as the economic policy measures and possible extra austerity will undermine growth.

Stability: The creditors’ demands for a high surplus for a prolonged period could put the political stability of Greece at risk as more austerity measures could be rejected and trigger elections, creating a great deal of uncertainty and undermine economic growth and government financial position.

Greece has gone through the most severe debt crisis since WWII which cost more than 25% of GDP, an increase of unemployment rate to 25% and brought the country to the top headlines of news agencies, but it seems to be stabilised now. Gas hydrates ppt A few days ago, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the 4th institution involved in Greek negotiations, proposed some accounting ploys to reduce the Greek debt burden and a staff level agreement later in December or early next year could enable the inclusion of Greek bonds to the ECB’s QE operations (Read Marc Chandler’s article). Electricity and magnetism study guide answers Could this be a turning point or just a short stop to a steady fall which has no end? We believe that it will be a very well-played bet if the creditors do finally realize that Greece costs them more and more money by postponing the necessary debt haircut and act fast. Gas bubbles in colon But as things stand, we do not see any willingness from the EU partners to overcome the Debt issue once and “forever” (at least not until the end of 2018).

Lower Debt. Electricity transformer near house This can be achieved with either a debt haircut by the Greek creditors or large fiscal surpluses, which will be used for debt repayments. Ogasco abu dhabi The IMF has insisted that Greece could only afford a fiscal surplus of 1.5% of GDP and this is the assumption EU should use for debt sustainability analysis. Speedy q gas station However, an (already optimistic) annual surplus target of 1.5% would mean that there must be a generous haircut to the Greek debt in order for the latter to be sustainable. Electricity and water European finance ministers and country leaders who find the debt haircut a “threat” to their power and an idea that they cannot “sell” to their voters, make different proposals that do not include a debt haircut. Gas x dosage pregnancy What this essentially means is that they are trying really hard to “sell” the following: “if Greece achieves 3.5% surplus then there is no need for a debt haircut.” But can Greece really achieve 3.5% surplus in the short, mid- or long term? Probably not.

Given that Greece is not able to influence foreign demand (as being a member of the Currency Union does not allow the country to depreciate the currency to increase foreign demand) the country essentially can alter domestic demand to boost income, production and finally growth. Grade 9 electricity questions Now, domestic demand is a sum of consumption, public expenditure and investment. Gas constant in atm In order for a target fiscal surplus of 3.5% to be achieved, there will need to be further cuts in government spending, reducing public expenditure. Gas prices in texas The well-known “austerity measures” could lead to another shock to unemployment and reduction to available income which in turn results in decreased domestic demand and finally, investments. Electricity usage by state In modern economics, countries run deficits when a crisis occurs in order to boost growth and create surpluses which will then be used to repay debt. Grade 9 current electricity test To sum up, we believe that further austerity measures will negatively impact growth prospects and eventually lead to a higher Debt/GDP ratio, bringing the country back to recession.

Stability: Maybe one of the most important factors is the link between the potential of a country and the actual results. Gas near me prices Although some would argue, economic strength is backed by a stable political environment and transparency. Electricity pictures In an ideal world where there is little or no political uncertainty, there would be confidence in the ability to form a government, limited changes to economic policies and a cooperation between parties and people. Gas works park An agreement of major political parties on important policies (taxation, healthcare, pension system, investments, etc.) would lead to a clear view of future, removing uncertainties on those matters, leading to more accurate forecasts by companies and eventually attract investment. Grade 6 electricity unit ontario Even if any of the agreements is deemed sustainable, the current government could fail to get the majority of the parliament votes and collapse. Q mart gas station This will lead to another election circle and no guarantees that the new government will be in favour of the previously agreed terms.

• Greek haircut by ESM 20% by 2060 not sufficient as this does not reduce the capital. Gas in spanish Although this will be a benefit for the Greek economy though the longer debt maturities and the lower (fixed) rates in the future, the way most investors and probably rating agencies evaluate the ability to repay the debt is by using the Debt to GDP ratio. Q card gas station It is only the debt in nominal terms that is being used in the numerator of this ratio. Gas under 3 dollars The longer maturity would result in a lower debt value if time value of money was taken into consideration.

• European partners ask for a 3.5% surplus for 3-10 years (after 2018) which is not sustainable, given that there hasn’t been a single country which was able to achieve surpluses of this size for a long period of time (Maybe we need to exclude oil & gas producing countries here).

• A fiscal surplus of 3.5% of GDP will probably need to be combined with more austerity which could lead to a collapse of the Greek government, which will, in turn, lead to elections and a new round of “uncertainty.”

• There are many sectors of the Greek economy that have potential. I have electricity in my body The electricity market which still operates in an old fashioned way and the deregulation of the electricity market will lead to opportunities in the energy sector. Electricity lesson plans 8th grade Tourism: performing very well, Greece as a country has plenty of opportunities to attract huge amount of investment in the tourism sector with a few privatization (of public assets), including tourist resorts. Astrid y gaston lima menu english Agriculture: One of the main drivers of the Greek economy which has been hit by high taxation after 2012, but the growth potential is high as there is still room for economies of scale and operational efficiency improvements. Gas lighting I am going to write some notes on some of the best performers within the next few weeks.

• Banks the worst performers with YTD return at -25% while metals, energy, chemical and retailers have outperformed. Static electricity bill nye Banks have a weight of >30% in GREK.

• Banks have recovered in the hope of improved sentiment in the negotiations and the news about the management of NPLs and NPEs (read Jan Willem Barnhoorn’s analysis on Greek banks). Gas x dosage for dogs The outlook for banks is now positive as the inclusion of Greek bonds in the ECB’s QE will reduce the banks’ interest cost and improve the profitability of Greek banks.