The end of injection season in upon us – look at natural gas as a trading sardine – the united states natural gas etf, lp (nysearca_ung) _ seeking alpha

Anyone who has traded natural gas futures or the leveraged ETN products that have become so popular over recent years knows that there are few markets that offer the volatility seen in the combustible energy commodity. 5 gases in the atmosphere Trading natural gas futures has always been the domain of action junkies and the ETN structures have brought the wild volatility to equity investors and traders.

Nearby natural gas futures fell to the lowest price since the late 1990s when they hit $1.6110 in March of this year. Electricity diagram flow A slow and steady recovery took the price to a high of $3.556 on the now active month December futures contract on October 14. Electricity fallout 4 Natural gas is always volatile but the peak season for demand occurs during the winter months in the United States. Electricity 3 phase vs single phase During the warm weather seasons, the energy commodity flows into pipelines and storage to prepare for the cold of winter. F gas regulations ireland The injection season tends to begin in March and runs through November. 9gag memes Withdrawals from inventory tend to occur from November through March.

In 2015, the number of cubic feet in storage rose to an all-time high of 4.009 trillion. Gas to liquid A warmer than average winter season caused an oversupply of the commodity and the price plunged. Gas efficient cars However, the low price resulted in a very slow rate of injections compared to past years as production slowed. Electricity for beginners pdf The low rate of injections caused buying in the market, which took the price to the mid-October highs. Hp gas online booking phone number However, a realization that stockpiles would surpass the 2015 record level caused the rally to end and the price dropped to lows of $2.546 by November 9. Electricity lesson plans middle school The price correction of 28.4% in less than four weeks is a testament to the volatility in the natural gas market and the reason why it attracts so many traders and speculators. Gas oil ratio 50 to 1 As of the week of November 11 there were 4.047 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, 38 billion above the prior year’s high. National gas average 2012 However, the price stopped moving lower. Electricity use Futures markets reflect the future perceptions of market activity. Electricity tattoo designs In natural gas, the price tanked as the market realized that inventories would rise to a new record, when stocks exceeded the 2015 highs, the market turned in a classic case of sell the rumor and buy the fact.

As the daily chart shows of the now active January futures contract highlights, it took less than one month for the price to dive over 25.9% and since the lows on November 9, it took two weeks for a recovery of 18.4%. Electricity flow diagram Daily historical volatility in NYMEX natural gas futures has was at the 35.3% level last week, it had moved as high as over 52% on November 21.

Last week was the Thanksgiving Holiday, so the Energy Information Administration (NYSEMKT: EIA) released storage numbers on Wednesday, November 23. Gas apple pay As of November 18, total stocks stood at 4.045 trillion cubic feet, 1% above last year’s level and 6.3% above the five-year average. Gas nozzle icon The prior week the EIA data was a new all-time high in the number of cubic feet of natural gas in inventories but the latest number did not establish a new record. Chapter 7 electricity and magnetism In fact, the EIA reported the first withdrawal of the year of 2 bcf and total stocks dropped from the record level.

There had been a frigid wave that swept across the Mid-Western United States and some areas saw substantial snow. Electricity grounding works The demand for heating caused an early withdrawal but there may still be another week of injections before the winter truly gets underway.

In 2015, the last injection of the year occurred during the week of November 20, this year we are one year earlier. Gas national average 2009 The first injection of 2015 was 53 bcf, the first one this year was 2 bcf. Gas in oil car Whether we get an injection or a withdrawal next week, the peak season for demand has arrived as we will see stockpiles move lower in the weeks ahead. Gas relief for babies home remedy After the EIA reported the marginal withdrawal last week, January natural gas futures traded to a new short-term high of $3.223 before closing the week at the $3.19 level on Friday.

As the injection season comes to an end, the December futures contract has rolled to January futures. Electricity kwh cost With open interest at the 1.158 million contract level, there are lots of longs and shorts in the market that have rolled their risk to the next active month. T gasthuys Click to enlarge Source: CQG

As the chart of the January 2017 versus December 2016 NYMEX natural gas futures spread shows, there is a contango between the two contract months, January trades at a premium to December. Electricity lessons ks1 The price action in the spread shows that it moved from a 12-14 cent contango all the way up to highs of 22.4 cents on November 11, a day when the December futures were trading close to the lows. Electricity facts history The volume spike on that day tells us that buyers of the January contract outnumbered sellers, and the chances are that those with long positions rolled risk positions as the price languished near the lows. Origin electricity faults The spread came back down to around 13 cents where the bulk of shorts likely rolled to January.

The spread favored the shorts because they got to buy back a cheaper contract in December and sell the more expensive future in January. Power energy definition The spread penalized the longs who needed to pay to play for another month. Gas variables pogil packet answers After the pain that natural gas handed to market participants on the long side in November, it is surprising that so many of these masochistic longs are still in the market and rolling for another contract of potential pain. Natural gas in spanish Of course some nimble traders and investors bought well, close to the lows over recent weeks, but my experience in natural gas tells me that lots of the longs still in the market are hangers-on, those who rode the wild puppy down and praying that they can now ride it up once again. Electricity notes pdf That mentality is like losing a couple of grand in the casino and going to the cash machine in a quest to get back to even, some do but the majority just make their losses worse. Gas and supply okc Do not get me wrong, I am not bearish on natural gas right now, nor am I bullish. Electricity prices going up I am simply commenting on the human condition of many that dip a toe in this turbulent and unforgiving market.

The one certainty right now is that injections have either ended or they will with the next report and we are in the season of withdrawals. Gas house edwards co The long and short positions are sitting and waiting and only Mother Nature knows if the weather will support the price or send it back down into the abyss.

The weather is hard to predict. Electricity grid australia Meteorologists constantly attempt to understand patterns and forecast temperatures and degree days, particularly when it comes to energy trading. O gastronomico Many of the largest funds and energy companies employ weather forecasters directly or as consultants. Gas vs diesel engine However, they are far from perfect and the biggest moves in the commodity come when they are wrong. Electricity joules 2016 is turning out to be a year where forecasters are less than accurate. La gastronomie They got Brexit and the U.S. Gas mask bong nfl election wrong. Gas dryer vs electric dryer cost savings They got the market reaction to the U.S. Year 6 electricity worksheets election wrong and those things are easier to predict than the weather.

Natural gas attracts so many market participants looking for market action that the majority of longs and shorts tend to lose money. Gas up yr hearse When the market goes their way, they get excited and hang on to positions too long. Gas monkey monster truck When it goes against them, they tend to turn educated risk positions into prayers. Gas mileage comparison There are only two ways to trade natural gas successfully. Gas definition wikipedia One is to have the discipline to set out a trading plan that carefully manages risk and potential reward and stick to that plan no matter what transpires. Done with electricity tattoo book The other is to be Mother Nature with a futures account.

Right now, it looks like the market has lots of longs and shorts. 1 unit electricity price india Open interest at 1.158 million contracts is not quite as high as it was on November 14 when it rose to 1.193 million, but it is still close to the highest level since March 2014 when the price was moving lower from the $6.50 level. Electricity distribution map With natural gas at half that price, you can bet that there are still bottom pickers in the market with long positions praying for Mother Nature to unleash a cold winter season so that the price can explode higher.

If history is a guide, the majority of those with long and short positions in the market today in the futures arena and those holding UGAZ and DGAZ will likely lose money in the weeks and months ahead. Gaston yla agrupacion santa fe 2016 Do not fall into that trap. E electricity bill Look at natural gas as a trading sardine. Electricity worksheets grade 9 Trade with the trend, you will never buy the bottom or sell the top in this market. Electricity physics pdf Take profits when they are in front of you and do not worry if the market keeps going, there is always another opportunity in a commodity that routinely trades at 50% historical volatility.

The bottom line is, winter is coming and it is likely to be a highly volatile season for natural gas. Electricity and magnetism study guide 5th grade Each year is a new adventure in this commodity. Gas line jobs in wv Last year the price moved to the lowest level in many years and there is no guaranty that the bearish trading pattern will repeat in the months ahead. Electricity worksheets Right now natural gas is in recovery mode but that can change quickly. A gas has no volume We have moved down 26% over the past month and we have moved up 18 % over the past month. Electricity off peak hours Natural gas is a trading sardine; forget the fundamentals go with the flow. Gas variables pogil extension questions Look to take advantage of moves in the middle of the range when buying or selling comes into the market. R gas constant chemistry Trade on an intraday basis and never hold a position for more than three days. Gas in babies treatment These rules will help you be more like Mother Nature and less likely to resort to prayer.

The end of injection season is upon us in natural gas; remember that only discipline will save you from the market making withdrawals from your capital during the inventory withdrawal season. Electricity 101 powerpoint The season for peak demand often attracts the highest number of market participants. Electricity cost las vegas Volatility always offers opportunity to make or lose money, be one of the few who profits.

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