The yankees don’t hit too many home runs because there’s no such thing – pinstripe alley locate a gas station near me


We live in the era of the home run. electricity symbols ks3 Much like basketball teams have discovered that three pointers are worth more than two pointers, or how football teams have found that passing the ball is more efficient than running the ball, baseball teams have gone all in on the value of the long ball. Players are no longer ashamed to sit back and try to drive the ball in the air, the potential for a swing-and-miss be damned.

This sentiment is more powerful than ever right now, but it’s also not new. Managers have been forced to answer for their teams supposed over-reliance on home runs before. It’s happened right here in New York. Back in 2012, Joe Girardi had to defend his team against the same grumblings. To the critics, who wondered why the Yankees weren’t trying to make more contact and record more hits, Girardi offered: “A homer is a hit too, you know that? Eventually everyone will believe that. ” Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

To some extent, the grumblings make sense. Today’s level of reliance on home runs is different, and humans are resistant to change. Moreover, the strategy can feel particularly frustrating when it fails, when the team doesn’t hit any home runs and scores just one or two runs. It’s at least a little understandable to feel the Yankees rely too much on homers. It’s also wrong.

The Yankees led the league in home runs in 2018. In fact, they led all teams ever, as their 267 home runs set a record. They won 100 baseball games in the process. The Dodgers were second in MLB with 235 home runs. They won the NL West and the National League pennant. electricity electricity lyrics The Athletics were third, with 227 home runs. They won 97 games. The Brewers were fourth, with 218 home runs. They won 96 games and the NL Central. Notice a pattern?

Maybe today’s game has lost something with the rise of the three true outcomes, the home run, walk, and strikeout. thitima electricity sound effect Maybe not. Whether today’s statistical trends are aesthetically pleasing is debatable. What isn’t debatable is whether it’s good for a team to hit lots of home runs. Do the Yankees hit too many home runs? No. Why? Because there is no such thing as hitting too many home runs. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

The Yankees do rely heavily on the home run. This is not a problem, as the best way to score is to hit home runs. The single best outcome of any given plate appearance, regardless of situation, is a home run. gas in oil mower To some extent, I could simply point out to you that the Yankees, by FanGraphs’ all-encompassing wRC+ metric, ranked second in baseball in overall offense. I could simply note the Yankees posted a .617 winning percentage. The Yankees had a great offense and a great team. If relying too much on home runs was a crutch, then why were the Yankees so good?

We can do better. I turned, in this instance, to Guillen Number, which measures the proportion of runs a team scored via the home run. The term was coined by Joe Sheehan, after former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Sheehan named the metric after Guillen due to the propensity of Guillen’s teams to thrive when hitting home runs, despite the popular sentiment at the time that Guillen’s teams were reliant on small-ball tactics. gas chamber jokes This year’s Yankees led the league with an extremely high Guillen Number of 50.8%. The Yankees scored a majority of their runs on home runs this season.

To get a more concrete picture of how well teams that rely on the home run did on offense, I calculated the correlation between a team’s Guillen Number and that team’s OPS for 2018. That yielded a correlation of .437. That’s not a particularly strong relationship, but it’s not a weak one either. gas problem in babies Teams that relied on home runs in 2018 generally had good offenses.

What proponents of this type of offense miss is how difficult it is, especially in modern baseball, to do the things that “manufacturing runs” requires. Small-ball offense needs a steady diet of base hits, singles, luck on balls in play to succeed. It relies not only on the offense doing something right, but the defense doing something wrong. In the age of big data, with teams scheming all sorts of ways to shift and position themselves and to get batters out, this is getting harder and harder to do.

Now, let’s turn back to the data. To be sure that playing small ball, that relying on contact rather than power, is counter-intuitive, I inverted my process from before. Instead of looking at the correlation between a team’s OPS and its Guillen Number, I looked at the rate at which a team put the ball in play. To do this, I looked at a team’s plate appearances in a season, and removed all events that didn’t involve a ball in play: home runs, walks, strikeouts, hit-by-pitches.

There’s almost nothing there, and a much worse picture than was painted by Guillen Number. I calculated the correlation between a team’s rate of balls in play and their overall offense, and saw a negative figure of -.107 in 2018. The story was the same going back in time, with a correlation of -.164 in 2017, -.149 in 2016, -.238 in 2015, and .045 in 2014.

Of course, home run reliance is not a be-all-end-all when it comes to offense. gasco abu dhabi contact Teams that rely on home runs can have bad offenses, and vice versa. Look no further than the World Champion Red Sox for proof. Boston ranked just 18th in Guillen Number and 8th in rate of balls in play in 2018, but rode a strong offense all the way to a World Series title.

You simply can’t be too reliant on home runs if you are as good as the Yankees are at hitting home runs. It’s like saying Usain Bolt was too reliant on his speed, or Stephen Curry is too reliant on his jumpshot. The Yankees relied on home runs this year, and they had a great offense because of it. To say otherwise flies in the face of how baseball is played today. And really, do you want to stand in opposition of this?