Trend lines 100% of the insight in 10% of the time, by brian gottlob, polecon research gas x directions

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In the last six years the share of light vehicle sales (sedans, station wagons, SUVs, pickups, minvans) in the U.S. that were autos (sedans and station wagons ) versus light trucks (pickups, minivans, SUVs) has declined by 20%. Autos are now about 30% of all light vehicle sales, in 1990 the percentage was 65%. Of the top 5 selling light vehicles in the U.S. in 2017, only the Toyota Camry is a sedan and there was not a single American made sedan in the top 20 selling vehicles.

By far, the top selling vehicle is the Ford F series pickup, selling more than twice the number of the top selling sedan, and 60% more than the next best selling vehicle (the Chevrolet Silverado pickup). origin electricity login The market has clearly changed, helped by lower gasoline prices, recent changes in CAFÉ (fuel efficiency) standards, and most importantly consumer preferences. GM recently announced the closing of several manufacturing facilities. I worked on 2 energy projects in Lordstown, OH where GM built its (once) popular Chevy Cruz and it is painful to hear that GM will be closing that facility after what was a period of renewed optimism in the region.

There are about 86,000 steel mill jobs in the United States, down from a decade ago when it was about 100,000. At its nadir in early 2017, steel mill jobs were under 81,000. electricity orlando About 6,000 jobs have come back since tariffs were introduced, but the producer price index (PPI) for steel mill products also soared as a result. electricity 101 powerpoint The value of U.S. steel mill output was about $78 billion before tariffs while the producer price index for steel mill products has risen just over 20% since tariffs . Those numbers imply a cost of tariffs to purchasers of U.S. steel mill products (U.S. companies and governments) of about $16 billion, as well as a cost per job saved of about $2.7 million. If instead of tariffs the U.S. had offered each of the 6,000 laid-off steel mill workers a generous $100,000 stipend per year for 3 years to replace lost pay and benefits and to retrain, it would have cost $1.8 billion, saving U.S. companies and governments $14.2 billion in tariff-related costs. A less than 1% surcharge on imported and U.S. steel mill products could have paid for such a policy without adding to government debt. I’m not arguing for such a policy but that 1% seems like a small price to pay to avoid punishing 20% price hikes.

It’s a good time to be a bank, well a BIG bank anyway. gas welder job description Bank of America’s Q3 profits are up by 32%, JPMorgan/Chase’s by 24%, Wells Fargo by 32% in the 3 rd quarter. Higher interest rates, a strong economy and needed (for smaller banks) regulatory relief have helped but the biggest contributor has been the reduction in the corporate tax rate. gas city indiana police department Industry-wide Q3 results have not yet been reported but looking at Q2 and Q1 2018 data compared to 2017 shows the impact of tax cuts. While banks pre-tax income was up by 12-13% in 2018, net income was up 27-28% because applicable income taxes (federal & state) were down more than 20%.

The banking industry has been perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the Trump administration’s initiatives. Earlier this year I examined over 400 press releases announcing how companies would be using the proceeds from corporate tax cuts and highlighting employee bonuses, minimum wage hikes, etc. (the releases were remarkable in their similarity as were the benefits accruing to employees – a small percentage but more about that in a future post). Despite banks being only about 1% of all business enterprises thy accounted for just over 30% of the press releases highlighting worker and civic benefits of the tax cut.

Repetez moi: “tariffs are stupid.” Our President, who should know better, said the U.S. has collected billions of dollars from China as a result of the tariffs placed on imported goods. gas 10 8 schlauchadapter Well no, not exactly, actually not even close. Those billions of dollars have been collected from U.S. companies and manufacturers importing products and materials (like aluminum and steel, electronics, etc.) for use in the products and services that they sell. Tariffs have already cost Ford Motor Co. $1 billion in profit. gasbuddy app U.S. consumers are also paying, until recently only on a few products (the CPI for laundry equipment was falling for about 10 years but is up 13% over the past year) but who will soon see prices on more products affected, as tariffs are placed on more products. Auto workers who were promised protectionist policies would spur manufacturing job growth must be disappointed as growth has fallen since 2017 and has been negative since mid-2017. Obviously, there are other influences on emp. growth in autos but protectionism isn’t helping. NAFTA version 2 (which looks a lot like NAFTA version 1) is hailed as the next savior for employment. Why not, those protectionist promises have worked-out so well thus far.

Aside from the ups and downs of business cycles, the growth rate of New Hampshire’s (and the nation’s) labor force and labor force participation rate has been on a consistent, downward trend. The rising percentage of NH’s population in age groups with traditionally lower rates of labor force participation along with slower overall population growth are key contributors. The two trends go a long way toward explaining why economic growth has been slower over much of the past two decades than during earlier time periods. As I noted in earlier posts, with NH’s extremely low birth rates, net in-migration to the state is critical for population, labor force, and ultimately employment growth. gas efficient suv 2010 Net state-to-state in-migration to NH is resuming in age groups with higher labor force participation and one consequence is a recent increase in the working-age population, as well as labor force participation in the state (chart), enabling stronger job growth in NH. It is early but the trend is very encouraging.