What really happened in south australia. and what we learned _ renew economy

• The shortage is mainly due to the second half of Pelican Point been effectively withdrawn from the market. Electricity usage The AEMO was aware of the withdrawal and mentioned it in the October 2015 update on the South Australian “Electricity Statement of Opportunities”. Electricity transmission loss Still, we can’t find any public announcement. Gas 2015 That combined with, as it turns out, nearly simultaneous closure of Northern Power Station and the mismatch between those closures and the upgrades and the announced closures of the first half of Pelican Point have made South Australia dependent in the short term on very inefficient and very high cost open cycle gas generators.

• Had Pelican Point been operating at full capacity pool prices would have been at least $100 MWh lower in July and, we expect, possibly even more. 3 gases that cause global warming Pelican Point’s owner Engie is perfectly within its rights to sell the gas and withdraw Pelican Point from service, if that is what it has done, but it could have been far more public about it, at least in our view. Electricity 1800s For what its worth, the AEMO report shows Pelican Point back in operation at 50% of capacity from 2017. Gas bubble in back This remains a poor outcome from South Australia’s point of view on the assumption that Pelican Point can ramp up and down as efficiently as say TIPS B (Torrens Island B). Electricity human body This is a technical point that your author has yet to resolve.

• The high pool prices are largely irrelevant to the prices South Australian consumers pay for electricity because the majority of the pool sales are hedged in one form or another. Gas up asheville However, futures prices in South Australia are $30-$40 MWh higher than in the Eastern States at least for the next couple of years. A gaseous mixture contains That means household consumer prices could be 10-15% higher than those in Victoria. Gas vs diesel cars Industrial electricity prices in South Australia will also be higher than in Victoria by the same 30-40 $MWh but a bigger %. M gasbuddy Industrial demand for electricity in South Australia is small (less than Tasmania) so from a national perspective this isn’t that important.

• For the renewable industry South Australia does throw up the challenge that it needs a lot of wind, far more than South Australia has right now, a lot of rooftop PV and some dispatchable renewables if South Australia is to remain a good example of high renewables penetration.

• The existing wind farms in South Australia are statistically highly correlated with total wind output. Electricity voltage in china You would have to build a lot more wind farms in the area to significantly reduce the volatility of output. Q gas station cleveland ohio Almost certainly its better to build new wind in a different State or to build a different form of renewable energy less correlated with wind, or alternatively to store the wind energy and better correlate output with demand. Wd gaster theme Also wind output and demand are not correlated. Electricity vocabulary words In fact the correlation coefficient was negative .18 for the period.

In our view there is a lot of noise about South Australia and not enough analysis. Gas relief while pregnant It’s undeniable that pool prices in South Australia have been high recently. Gasbuddy app Pool prices have been high across the NEM for months now despite flattish demand, but they have been especially high in South Australia.

Higher prices in the pool actually don’t mean very much for consumers in the first instance. Electricity symbols worksheet Pool prices are basically just the mechanism for determining which generators will run. Kansas gas service bill pay In ITK’s opinion at least 75% of pool revenues will be covered by hedging contracts of one sort or another. La gasolina daddy yankee mp3 Those hedging contracts will either be baseload contracts for differences. Electricity around the world Ie if retailer A and generator B agree to buy and sell electricity for say $50 MWh and the pool price is $200 MWh then retailer pays $200 and recovers $150 from the generator.

Alternatively the generator receives $200 and pays $150 to the retailer. Electricity history in india Retailers generally cover the baseload or predictable demand in this way. Gasoline p But demand is neither completely predictable or constant so retailers also buy “caps”. Electricity merit badge worksheet Under these contracts generators and retailers agree that some price typically $300 MWh is the most the retailer will pay for a given number of MW of demand. U gas hampton Typically the supplier of caps is an open cycle gas turbine which may in some cases run on diesel or aviation gas or hydro. Electricity receiver definition This backup generation has low capital costs but high variable costs.

Retailers will typically remain exposed to some small fraction of demand as it may be too expensive to cover hedge cover 24 hours a day 365 days a year for that one or two half hours a year when demand really peaks . Youtube gas laws A better description can be found at hedging explained .

Its worth recalling that AGL recently announced that its gas profits would be down in FY17 as compared to FY16 and one reason is that they have had to pay more for gas to run their power stations in South Australia, TIPS A and TIPS B.

The following Figure shows the gas generation output, revenue and gas costs on a per generator basis in South Australia over the period 1 July to 17 July. Electricity lab activities Although the table shows “pool profits” in fact some generators will make less because they will have sold futures contracts. Electricity and magnetism online games Specifically we won’t be surprised if generators such as Quarantine and TIPS and Osborne and Ladbroke Grove actually make less profit than shown below because of hedging and depending on how much their gas costs are also hedged.

Basically, if Pelican Point had operated at full capacity over the period it would have displaced from Snuggery to Hallett and part of Quarantine. Gas out game commercial Pool electricity prices would likely have been at least $100 MWh lower and possibly even less.

Unsurprisingly the wind farms in South Australia tend to run at the same time. Electricity omd There are 18 operating wind farms, but Hornsdale has only just commissioned. 935 gas block Over the brief Mar 1 – July 18 2016 period the average output was 501 MW with a standard deviation of 375 MW or 75%.

The percentage standard deviation is smaller for the total than it is for any of the individual wind farms as expected. Current electricity definition physics That is the portfolio variance is less than individual wind farm variance, but not by much. Electricity 2015 The average of the individual wind farms standard deviations is 100%. No electricity jokes That is there is a 66% chance that the wind farm ouput is 100% above or below its mean at any point in time.

Another way to look at this is to look at the correlation of the individual wind farms with the total wind farm output as shown in the figure below. Gas mask art In no case is it below 70%. Electricity gif Combined these two statistics tell us that it will take an awful lot of wind farms to reduce the volatility of the wind output in South Australia and that’s another reason why more transmission interconnections are going to be needed.