Who will benefit from the electrification of transport_ _ oilprice. com

The recent launch of the Tesla Model 3 has proven a massive global demand for electric vehicles. Types of electricity consumers Thus, it is no longer the question if the electrification of transport will take place, but rather when exactly.

In an earlier article, “Wake up call for oil companies: electric vehicles will deflate oil demand”, we assessed how the oil industry could be impacted by such a development. Gasbuddy nj The article concluded that even under the most pessimistic of assumptions, electric vehicles will substantially reduce crude oil demand in the medium term (2021 – 2030). Gasbuddy This article looks at the implications of the electrification of transport for the electricity market.

The Alternative Energy Outlook that we developed looks at the implications of the electrification of transport under three different sets of assumptions.

The reference case assumes a continuation of the current 50% annual growth rate in electric vehicle (EV) sales until the end of the decade, after which it slows down first to 30% per annum (until 2030) and then 15% per annum (until 2040). Bp gas locations This would increase the number of electric vehicles on the road from 1 million today, to 8 million by 2020, 105 million by 2030, and 424 million by 2040.

The growth projections for electric vehicles in the low case are 42% until 2020, 25% until 2030 and 12% until 2040, which would increase the number of electric vehicles on the road from 1 million today, to 6 million by 2020, 54 million by 2030, and 167 million by 2040. Gas stoichiometry examples Related: Russia Remains Determined To Stop Israel-Turkey Pipeline Deal

The high case, lastly, assumes a 60% per annum growth in electric vehicle sales until 2020, 36% thereafter until 2030 and 18% thereafter until 2040, which would result in to 10 million electric vehicles by 2020, 227 million by 2030, and 1,188 million by 2040.

The Alternative Energy Outlook assesses the number of barrels lost from global crude oil demand due to electric vehicle penetration for each of three given scenarios, through assuming that every electric vehicle will take the place of a vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine. Gas bloating It also calculates what this penetration by electric vehicles of transport would mean for electricity demand.

In the reference case, 8 million electric cars will have taken the place of an internal combustion powered vehicle by 2020. Gsa 2016 pay scale By 2030 this will be 108 million. Electricity video ks2 And by 2040 it will be 424 million. La gastritis This would reduce growth in crude oil demand by 0.3 million barrels per day by 2020, 3.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and 13.8 million barrels per day by 2040.

As the energy content of a typical barrel of crude oil is some 5.5 million British thermal units (Btu), the energy value equivalent of these barrels can be calculated: 2,220 billion Btu per day by 2020, 18,874 billion Btu per day by 2030 and 76,608 billion Btu per day by 2040.

The electrification of transport will not increase electricity energy demand by the same amounts, however, as electric vehicles are some three times more energy efficient than vehicles with internal combustion engines. Kushal gas agencies belgaum The increase in electricity demand would therefore be a third of the decrease in crude oil demand, meaning that the additional demand of power generation capacity in the reference case is 11 GW by 2020, 93 GW by 2030 and 378 GW by 2040. Gas hydrates energy (Assuming 90% availability of power generation plants and 10% losses during transmission and distribution).

The same calculation under the assumptions of the low case results in an additional demand on power generation capacity of 8 GW by 2020, 47 GW by 2030 and 148 GW by 2040. Gaslighting examples In the high case the numbers are 11 GW by 2020, 203 GW by 2030 and 1,065 GW by 2040.

In 2014, coal was responsible for some 39% of global electricity generation capacity, natural gas for 22%, hydro for 17%, nuclear for 11%, renewables for 7%, and oil for 5%. Static electricity online games Related: Brazil’s New Foreign Minister Suspected Of Dubious Dealings With Chevron

Since electric vehicles tend to be charged overnight, it is highly likely that the electrification of transport will not require any additional investment in electricity generation capacity in the short- and medium-term. Electricity song billy elliot Electricity generation capacity is determined based on expected peak load, namely, which tends to be early morning when people leave home for school or work or early evening when they come home. Gaz 67b for sale At night a typical electricity network operates significantly below capacity, meaning that an increase in the number of electric cars on the road would increase demand during off-peak hours and thus lower the difference between demand during peak hours and off-peak hours. Static electricity how it works In other words, it would lead to a higher average utilization of the existing electricity generation capacity, rather than an increase in this capacity, which is a scenario that especially utilities companies would benefit from.

Were things to remain the way they are in the power generation industry, therefore, coal would win from the electrification of transport. Electricity jeopardy powerpoint However, the mix of fuels used for electricity generation is changing, with the share of coal under substantial pressure at least in part due to environmental concerns associated with coal based electricity generation, in particular its CO2 emissions. Gas in babies at night For this reason we do not expect an increase in electricity demand to trigger a large uptick in coal demand – while the global pool of electric vehicles will increase, coal’s share in power generation capacity will decrease.

Natural gas’ share of global electricity generation capacity has increased from 16% in 2000 to 27% at the end of 2013. Grade 6 science electricity multiple choice test The big oil companies are betting this trend will continue, as indicated by ExxonMobil’s and BP’s recent energy outlooks, as well as Shell’s acquisition of British Gas. Mp electricity bill payment jabalpur If these companies are right, the additional electricity demand resulting from the electrification of transport would be met by natural gas. Nyc electricity cost In the reference case of the Alternative Energy Outlook this would add 5.6 million metric tons per annum (MMTA) to global LNG demand by 2020, 47.2 MMTA by 2030 and 191.5 MMTA by 2040 – a 2%, 20% and 79% increase from the current global demand of approximately 241 MMTA. Gas after eating salad In the low case the increase in LNG demand would be 4.2 MMTA (2%) by 2020, 23.6 MMTA (10%) by 2030 and 191.5 MMTA (31%) by 2040, while in the high case it would be 5.6 MMTA (2%) by 2020, 102.7 MMTA (43%) by 2030 and 539.7 MMTA (224%) by 2040.

The electrification of transport could thus be the savior of the LNG industry, which at present is substantially oversupplied and is facing a further 130 MMTA (40%) increase in supply by 2022. Gas prices going up in michigan The additional LNG demand from electric vehicles could absorb a substantial amount of this additional supply and remove some of the downward pressure on the LNG price. Electric utility companies charge customers for Related: Can Oil Prices Hold Onto Gains At $50 Per Barrel?

Lastly, if the electrification of transport is to be fueled by renewable energy, then substantial additional investment in wind and solar power generation capacity will be required. Electricity transmission costs Since the running cost of renewable power generation is essentially zero, these capacities tend to be part of base capacity, meaning they are fully used during the day (gas turbines make up the bulk of back-up generation capacity). Gas in back trapped In the case of renewables, therefore, additional demand will require additional investment in capacity. Gas leak east los angeles At present wind turbines contribute 432 GW to global electricity generation capacity, with solar accounting for some 200 GW. Gas bijoux nolita Thus, in the reference case wind capacity would have to be increases by 25% by 2030, and solar by 50%.

All this means that coal and – especially – LNG stand to benefit most from electrification of transport. Electricity for dummies pdf They would namely be the lowest cost solution for the additional power demand, since they could meet it with established capacity while renewables would require further investment.

One of the key opportunities that EVs offer utilities is dispatchable load. Gas laws worksheet pdf Consider the situation in Germany and other electricity market where there is high penetration of wind and solar. Z gas tecate telefono Baseload plants in these markets are exposed to net demand going so low as to depress spot prices, even taking them negative. Electricity cost per kwh by country Baseload plants need dispatchable load to soak up excess renewable energy. Electricity problem in up This is exactly the service that EVs can provide. Electricity bill bihar electricity board Certainly charging in the early morning is doable in residential garages and aggregation can make this load highly dispatchable. 9gag instagram Where solar penetration is high, late morning (8 to 12 AM) is the low spot for net demand. Electricity symbols ks2 Workplace charging infrastructure can easily tap this market along with aggregation to yield precise control over dispatchable load. Gas yourself in car Shoring up these low net demand valleys will enable grid operators to maximize the use of both intermittent renewables and baseload generation.

With this in mind, given the tremendous growth rates of solar and wind, it will be a trivial task for these resources to generate the energy needed for EVs. Electricity storage costs Managing the power load is the key issue. K gas station Fortunately, the batteries in EVs provide the essential assets needed to balance the grid for this purpose.

EVs will reduce the cost of balancing grids and improve the utilization of baseload generation. Gas konigsforst But this is not good news for coal or natural gas. Current electricity examples Using fewer baseload plants with higher utilitization actually reduces demand for both coal and natural gas. Electricity shock in the body Wind and solar are already reaching PPA prices below $30/MWh, which puts enormous price pressure on coal and natural gas to go well below $4/mmbtu. Electricity and magnetism physics definition Thus, solar and wind are becoming cheaper than the fuel cost alone of fossil fuels at profitable prices. Gas estimator The challah get for wind and solar is merely to stabilize the grid, and batteries both in EVs and stationary are key to integrating higher penetration of wind and solar. Power outage houston reliant EVs just happen to be the lowest cost way for utilities to get access to the batteries they need, and that is why battery aggregation and dispatchable charging infrastructure emerge quickly as the EV fleet reaches critical scale. Static electricity zapper Such infrastructure will be the cheapest way for grid operators to obtain access dispatchable batteries.